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SunSirs: The Ammonium Phosphate Market Performs Brightly in 2020, and the Price Is Still High at the End of the Year

December 25 2020 13:18:00     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the data of SunSirs’ bulk list, the average ex-factory price of powdered ammonium biphosphate on January 1 was 1,906 RMB/ton, and on December 23, the average ex-factory price of powdered ammonium biphosphate was 2,116 RMB/ton. It rose by 11.01% with a maximum amplitude of 12.97%.

According to the data of SunSirs’ bulk list, the average ex-factory price of 64% DAP was 2,200 RMB/ton on January 1, and the average ex-factory price of 64% DAP was 2,440 RMB/ton on December 23. It rose by 10.91%, with a maximum amplitude of 13.74%.

Analysis review

In 2020, the market for ammonium biphosphate is relatively volatile, showing an overall up-down-up trend, with prices at a high level at the end of the year. The spring plowing season of the first quarter ushered in the peak season of the year. During the quarter, the overall price of ammonium biphosphate rose by 9.27%, and the peak season for phosphate fertilizers, chemical fertilizers also rose. The raw materials of ammonium phosphate rose sharply, and the demand for downstream compound fertilizers was strong. Multiple benefits led to the price increase of ammonium phosphate. Due to poor demand in the off-season, ammonium biphosphate fell sharply in the second quarter, and the overall price fell 3.58% during the quarter. The demand for downstream compound fertilizer was weak, market transactions were limited, and the supply of ammonium biphosphate was sufficient, the weak market continued to the third quarter, and the price trend was relatively stable. The turning point was fulfilled in the fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, the ammonium phosphate market was boosted by favorable factors such as tight supply and cost support. Prices rose and the transaction center shifted upward. Ammonium biphosphate increased by 13.39% in the quarter. Towards the end of the year, downstream fatigue is revealed and purchasing power is limited. Some regional offers for ammonium biphosphate begin to loosen, but the prices of mainstream manufacturers in the market remain stable. As the demand side support weakened, the market may usher in an inflection point.

In 2020, the market for DAP first declined and then rose, and rose all the way in the second half of the year. At the end of the year, the price rose to a high level during the year, showing a brilliant performance. The overall price of DAP rose by 1.14% in the first quarter. Due to the low price of raw materials and poor transportation in many places, downstream traders mainly digested inventories, and their enthusiasm was not good. The market supply was strong and demand was weak, and the price increase of DAP was hindered. Entering March, prices began to rise, and then stabilized. As Hubei enterprises resume dproduction one after another, spot supplies were sufficient, new orders for downstream purchases are reduced, and export competition was fierce. The market for DAP fell in the second quarter, and the overall price fell 3.58% during the quarter. In the second half of the year, domestic and foreign demand for DAP increased, the supply of goods was relatively tight, the market gradually improved, and prices began to continue to rise. Near the end of the year, tight supply continues, export demand slows down, and market transactions are tepid. However, the downstream demand for fertilizer is stable and the price remains high. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to run stably.

2020 is coming to an end. The domestic phosphate ore market is generally weak and stable, downstream demand is weak, new orders are not many, and support for phosphate ore is limited. Phosphate ore manufacturers mostly rely on stable prices before the New Year. The phosphate rock analyst of SunSirs believes that the recent adjustment of the phosphate rock market is limited, and the quotation is not expected to be lowered, and the overall stable operation is mainly maintained.

Market outlook

The ammonium phosphate analyst of SunSirs believes that 2020 will be a difficult year for the chemical industry, and the ammonium phosphate market is affected by the shortage of supply, cost support, demand boost and other favorable factors. The performance is relatively bright, and the price is generally upward. . Although the trend of ammonium biphosphate fluctuated this year, it did not fall sharply. The industry's mentality was relatively stable and continued to rise again at the end of the year. After dormant in the first half of the year, the price of DAP rose strongly in the second half of the year, and the price was at a year-round high at the end of the year. . At present, the ammonium phosphate market has not been greatly constrained by the bad news, and it is about to close. It is expected that the market will be relatively stable and the price will not be adjusted significantly. The market outlook still needs to pay attention to the demand side guidance.

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