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SunSirs: The Rally Slowed Down, and the Butadiene Market Was Consolidating at a High Level in November

December 03 2020 13:26:29     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

In November, the domestic butadiene market continued to rise due to the external drive, and the upward trend has slowed down. According to the sample data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic butadiene market price was 9,200 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and the domestic butadiene market price rose to 9,938 RMB/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 8.03% during the month and a 12.50% year-on-year increase.

Analysis review  

This time, the butadiene market has seen a significant upswing and lasted for a long time, mainly driven by external disks. Coupled with the impact of the overhaul of some foreign installations, the domestic butadiene market price continues to rise. However, the downstream rubber market demand is weak. Although major butadiene manufacturers have raised their ex-factory quotations many times, the actual transactions are limited. As of the end of the month, the delivery price in Shandong is around 9,900 RMB/ton, and the East China canning price refers to 9,950-10,000 RMB/ton, and the actual order is mainly negotiated.

In terms of enterprises, Sinopec East China’s butadiene supply price has increased by 900 RMB/ton month-on-month, and will be implemented at 10,100 RMB/ton from November 23; Liaoning Baolai’s 120,000 tons/year butadiene plant has been operating stably, as of November 30, the reserve price for bidding was 9,510 RMB/ton.

External disk: As of the close of November 30, the price of Asian butadiene external disk was stable: FOB Korea closed at 1,335-1,345 US dollars/ton; CFR China closed at 1,305-,1315 US dollars/ton. European butadiene external disk prices were stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at 1,010-1,020 US dollars/ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 695-705 euros/ton.

Market outlook

At present, driven by the high external market, it is difficult to find low prices in the domestic butadiene market; however, domestic spot transactions need to be followed up, and downstream rubber demand is weak, and real orders are the main ones. SunSirs butadiene analysts predict that the short-term domestic butadiene market will consolidate at a high level.

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