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SunSirs: Cost Support Was Weak and Ethylene External Disk Market Declined

August 13 2020 14:33:26     SunSirs (John)

Price trend

According to the monitoring data of SunSirs, the external price of ethylene has fallen recently. The average price of ethylene on August 1 was 740.75 US dollars/ton, and the price on the 11th was 713.00 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.75%. The current price fell 6.61% month-on-month, and the current price fell by 22.71%year-on-year.

Analysis review

Recently, ethylene has shown a downward trend as a whole. Asian ethylene market prices fell. As of the 11th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 755-765 US dollars/ton, and CFR Southeast Asia closed at 695-705 US dollars/ton. The European ethylene market price fell. As of the 11th, the European ethylene market price was FD Northwestern Europe closed at 702-709 US dollars/ton, and CIF Northwestern Europe closed at 692-700 US dollars/ton. The price of ethylene in the United States has risen, as of the 11th, the price was 385-403 US dollars/ton. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and Asia is in a downward trend. The ethylene market in the United States has fallen sharply in the early stage and is now rebounding slightly. The demand for the entire ethylene market is not good, and the trading atmosphere is general.

Internationally: On August 12, the price of the US WTI crude oil futures market fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported at 41.61 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.33 US dollars. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was reported at 44.5 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 0.49 US dollars. The decline in oil prices was mainly due to the selling in New York precious metals futures and the decline in crude oil prices, which could not support the cost of ethylene, and the external market for ethylene fell.

The domestic styrene market has fallen. This week, the arrival of styrene is concentrated, and the terminal inventory has increased. The supply is relatively sufficient, and the overall supply is still in excess. It is expected that the market will continue to fall in recent days, and it cannot form cost support for ethylene.

Market outlook

The ethylene analyst of SunSirs believes that: in terms of crude oil: the selling of gold and other precious metal futures brings negative risks, and oil prices continue to decline. Therefore, the data analyst of SunSirs predicts that the price of ethylene will fall mainly in the future.

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