SunSirs: The Silicomanganese Market Saw Sluggish Trading This Week, with Prices Remaining Weak and Stable

The silicomanganese market saw sluggish trading this week. Steel mills finished stockpiling, and the futures market fluctuated narrowly. The market entered a holiday mode, with factories experiencing almost no shipments and focusing mainly on fulfilling existing orders. According to data from SunSirs' commodity market analysis system, the market price of silicomanganese (FeMN68Si18 specification) in Ningxia was around 5,500-5,600 RMB/ton at the end of this week, with an average market price of 5,552.00 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.50% compared to last week.

Influencing factors

On the supply side: This week, an alloy plant in Inner Mongolia started a new furnace operation, its second new furnace put into operation this year. At full capacity, each furnace can produce approximately 400 tons per day, raising expectations of increased regional supply. As of February 13, the market was in the Spring Festival holiday period, with fewer spot prices quoted by alloy plants, primarily focused on fulfilling previous orders, resulting in low regional inventory pressure. In Ningxia, ferrosilicon production was generally operating normally, with relatively stable plant operations; however, downstream procurement was weak before the holiday, leading to lower shipments and continued accumulation of factory inventories. Plants had sufficient manganese ore reserves, with inventories expected to cover the end of February.

In southern China, Guangxi saw a month-on-month increase in electricity prices in February. Some businesses reported that their electricity costs had reached approximately 0.6 yuan/kWh, resulting in a severe cost inversion and making production virtually impossible. Most factories have shut down their furnaces and are awaiting the possibility of electricity subsidy policies being introduced during the Spring Festival. Guizhou abolished time-of-use electricity pricing on February 1st, leading to a significant increase in costs. Some factories have already suspended production and plan to decide on resumption after the holiday based on futures market conditions and overall market trends.

According to statistics, the operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises nationwide this week was 35.57%, a decrease of 0.20% compared to last week; the average daily output was 27,335 tons, an increase of 50 tons.

According to incomplete statistics, as of February 12th, the national inventory of silicomanganese enterprises was 381,800 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, Inner Mongolia had 62,300 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; Ningxia had 304,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons; Guangxi had 2,000 tons, unchanged; Guizhou had 1,500 tons, unchanged; (Shanxi, Gansu, and Shaanxi) had 10,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; and (Sichuan, Yunnan, and Chongqing) had 2,000 tons, unchanged.

Upstream costs: The northern manganese ore market has recently maintained a volatile but slightly stronger trend. With the release of overseas ore prices in March, offers for various types of ore have increased to varying degrees, further strengthening cost support. The continued accumulation of long-term cost pressures has kept spot prices firm and trending upwards, with the actual transaction focus shifting slightly upwards before the holiday.

Data shows that the mainstream price for semi-carbonated manganese ore at Tianjin Port was 37-37.5 RMB/MTU, while the price for South African high-speed rail ore varies from 30.5-32.8 RMB/MTU, Gabonese ore was priced at 43 RMB/MTU, South32 Australian lump ore was priced at 42 RMB/MTU, and CML Australian lump ore was priced at 43.5 RMB/MTU. At Qinzhou Port, pre-holiday manganese ore stockpiling was basically complete, but rising costs and limited demand resulted in a lack of market support. The price for semi-carbonated manganese ore was 34.5-35 RMB/MTU, South African high-speed rail ore was above 39 RMB/MTU, and high-grade Australian ore was priced between 37.5-38 RMB/MTU.

On the international market, NMT released its March 2026 price quote for manganese ore to China, with South African semi-carbonated manganese ore quoted at $4.5 per MTU, up $0.18 per MTU from the previous price.

On the demand side: A steel mill in Guangdong priced its silicomanganese at 5,840 RMB/ton, with a tender quantity of 1,500 tons, payable by acceptance bill including tax and delivered to the factory, with basis discounts; a steel mill in South China priced its silicomanganese at 5,830 RMB/ton, with a tender quantity of 3,000 tons, payable by acceptance bill including tax and delivered to the factory, with basis discounts; a steel mill in Guangdong priced its silicomanganese at 5,830 RMB/ton, with a tender quantity of 1,000 tons, payable by acceptance bill including tax and delivered to the factory, with basis discounts.

Market outlook:

Overall, manganese ore prices remain firm on the cost side, factories have largely completed their stockpiling, and the settlement electricity price in Inner Mongolia has increased by approximately 0.02-0.03 RMB/kWh, providing reasonable cost support. In the last trading week before the holiday, demand in the silicomanganese market has largely subsided. SunSirs predicts that the silicomanganese market will remain weak and stable in the short term.

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