SunSirs: After the Holiday, There Is a Battle Between the Increase in Acetone Market Inventory and the Strong Start of the Year

With the Spring Festival holiday approaching, the acetone market saw a moderate price increase before the holiday. What will the market do after the holiday? Looking back over the past six years, acetone prices have almost consistently risen after holidays. From 2021 to 2025, prices rose in the week and month following the holidays. This year, the East China market has already reached 4,600-4,650 RMB/ton before the holiday. With solid support from benzene costs and anticipated maintenance shutdowns at Huizhou Zhongxin and Jiangsu Ruiheng, the market's bullish sentiment is indeed supported.

The strongest foundation lies in cost and maintenance. First, raw materials. International crude oil prices remain resilient at the beginning of 2026, and the supply and demand situation for benzene is significantly better than last year, maintaining a cost floor. Second, supply contraction. After the holiday, Huizhou Zhongxin's plant will be converted, and Jiangsu Ruiheng plans maintenance, causing the domestic phenol-acetone operating rate to decline from its high level. The pre-holiday domestic operating rate of 90% was already the highest in the same period in the past three years, making a decline almost inevitable. The combination of historical inertia and maintenance expectations suggests that a "high opening price due to inertia" after the holiday is highly likely. 

The biggest hidden danger: a mismatch between inventory and demand. During the Spring Festival, domestic plants maintained high-load operation, and imported contract cargoes arrived at ports as usual. In the last week before the holiday, the inventory at Jiangyin Port was 35,500 tons, which was relatively low, but this was the result of pre-holiday destocking. With the holiday logistics standstill and cargoes gradually replenishing, a post-holiday increase in port inventory is inevitable. More crucial is the pace of demand. Downstream bisphenol A and MIBK operating rates have slightly increased, but isopropanol operating rates will decline significantly; solvent companies have always been slow to resume operations. This means that the speed of supply recovery is likely to be faster than the speed of demand follow-up. In mid-March, Shandong Ruilin's new plant is also planned to start production, which is also a prediction of long-term supply pressure.

The following are the acetone quotations in major markets across the country:

According to SunSirs, a high opening price is easy, but a sustained high price is difficult. Overall, the acetone market after the holiday is likely to follow a pattern of "rising initially and then falling" or "rising and consolidating." In the initial opening phase, it's normal for holders to tentatively offer higher prices based on maintenance expectations and historical habits. However, what truly determines the market trend is not the first offer, but the actual restocking strength of downstream factories after resuming operations. The 2026 Spring Festival market will no longer be a simple emotional tug-of-war. Costs and maintenance have supported the lower limit, but inventory accumulation and demand mismatch have capped the upper limit. For market participants, it's crucial to monitor two things: the rate of inventory accumulation at ports and the actual pace of downstream resumption of operations. A "strong start" may come, but how long it lasts ultimately depends on end-user orders.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.