SunSirs: The Cost Support for Melamine Was Weak, and This Recent Small Price Increase Is Unlikely to Last

Recent market price changes

Sunsirs Spot Price Benchmark: As of February 4, 2026, the domestic spot price of melamine was 5,712.5 RMB/ton. Daily increase: an increase of 37.5 RMB/ton compared to the previous day, a daily increase of 0.66%.

Recent cumulative price increase: Since January 28th, the price started at 5,637.5 RMB/ton, stabilized after two increases on January 29th and 30th, and rose again on February 3rd. In the past week, the cumulative increase was 75 RMB/ton, a 1.33% increase.

From a supply and demand perspective, this round of "stable but slightly rising" prices is the result of short-term demand meeting long-term oversupply, and therefore lacked a solid foundation.

Upstream (costs): Support was weak. The price of urea, the main raw material, was soft, and there was no upward momentum in production costs. On February 4th, SunSirs' benchmark price for urea was 1,777.50 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.28% compared to the beginning of the month (1782.50 RMB/ton).

Midstream (production): High pressure. The fundamental problem was severe overcapacity in the industry; any price increase is likely to be suppressed by the abundant supply.

Downstream (demand): Short-term driving force. This was mainly supported by seasonal stockpiling in the sheet metal industry after the Spring Festival, but this demand is temporary.

In short, downstream inventory building provided a "window of opportunity" for price increases, but the two major obstacles of upstream costs and midstream production capacity determined that the price increase potential was limited and unsustainable. The key to the market trend depends on whether demand falls after the subsequent inventory building ends, and whether there is a substantial reduction in production capacity.

Market comprehensive analysis

In summary, melamine prices have shown a slight upward trend amidst fluctuations, reflecting some market support. Manufacturers in different regions have made flexible adjustments based on their inventory, orders, and regional supply and demand conditions, resulting in both price increases and decreases, indicating that the market is not experiencing a one-sided trend. This small increase is considered a short-term fluctuation. From an industry perspective, the melamine market faces the fundamental challenge of continuous capacity expansion and overall oversupply in the long term, which limits the potential for significant price increases.

Overall, themarket, within the context of ample long-term supply, is experiencing short-term, regional, and modest price increases.

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