SunSirs: China and International Oil and Gas Report Released - Asia Emerges as Core Growth Pole

The “2025 China and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report” was released yesterday (February 3) in Beijing. The report indicates that China's refining and chemical industry is accelerating its high-end transformation, with rapid development in new chemical materials. The self-sufficiency rate for high-end chemical materials has risen to over 80%.

China's self-sufficiency rate for high-end chemical materials has risen to over 80%

Oil and gas exploration and development investment remained at a high level in 2025, with both reserves and production reaching record highs. Crude oil output hit a historic peak of 216 million tons, while natural gas production (including coal-based gas) reached 263.8 billion cubic meters, marking nine consecutive years of annual growth exceeding 10 billion cubic meters. China's refining capacity reached 939 million tons per year, and ethylene production capacity reached 62.7 million tons per year, both ranking first globally. With China's accelerated transformation of automotive energy structures and continuous upgrading of integrated refining and petrochemical capacity, petroleum consumption patterns undergo further adjustment. Rapid development in chemical new materials elevates self-sufficiency rates for high-end chemical materials to over 80%.

The report forecasts modest growth in China's petroleum consumption in 2026, alongside a rebound in natural gas consumption growth. Refining capacity will continue expanding, with an estimated 15 million tons/year of new crude oil primary processing capacity added, bringing total capacity beyond 950 million tons/year. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, three key drivers—import substitution, supporting emerging industries, and green circular development—will sustainably boost demand for new materials. By 2030, demand for chemical new materials is projected to exceed 65 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 10%.

Global Oil and Gas Market Supply-Demand Relaxes; Asia Emerges as Core Growth Pole

The 2025 Domestic and International Oil and Gas Industry Development Report indicates that by 2025, the global oil and gas market will experience relaxed supply-demand conditions. International oil prices will fluctuate downward, the natural gas market will shift from tight to relaxed, and regional energy consumption will diverge significantly. Asia will continue to serve as the core growth pole for global energy consumption.

By 2025, the global oil and gas market will exhibit a relaxed supply-demand balance. The annual average price of Brent crude oil is projected at $68.19 per barrel, a 14.62% year-on-year decline. Crude oil and natural gas production will increase by 2.4% and 3.1%, respectively. Regional consumption patterns will diverge significantly: Asia-Pacific energy consumption growth will reach 2.7%, accounting for nearly 80% of global consumption growth, while Europe and Eurasia will see a 2.0% decline. Global ethylene production capacity is shifting toward Asia, with China's ethylene capacity ranking first globally, further highlighting the region's industrial competitiveness.

Lu Ruquan, President of the Economic and Technical Research Institute of China National Petroleum Corporation: Forecasts indicate that the market will remain relatively relaxed in 2026. In response to global uncertainties, China will leverage its stable economic development to position itself as the ballast and stabilizer of the global oil and gas market.

The report forecasts that the global oil and gas market will remain ample in 2026. Under the baseline scenario, the average annual price of Brent crude oil is projected to range between $60 and $65 per barrel, while natural gas demand will maintain moderate to low growth. Global ethylene capacity is expected to increase by 9.3 million tons per year, with China accounting for 8.05 million tons per year, further solidifying the country's pivotal role in supporting the petrochemical industry.

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