SunSirs: China Sugar Prices Fluctuated and Fell in January

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, the average price of first grade white sugar in China was 5,356 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month, and 5,295 RMB/ton at the end of the month, with a price drop of 1.15%.

In terms of domestic supply, Guangxi sugar factories face significant inventory pressure and shipping resistance still exists. Due to the support of sugar production costs, sugar factories still have a certain upward trend, which limits the downward space of prices. Driven by the rise in Zhengzhou Sugar, downstream inquiry enthusiasm has increased, and the speed of sugar factory shipments has accelerated. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream centralized stocking is coming to an end. Most traders have reported a significant decline in current sales compared to the same period last year, and some downstream enterprises plan to take early holidays, which may further reduce the amount of sugar digested.

Internationally, Brazil has entered the end of the crushing season. In the second half of December, the central and southern regions produced 56,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year decrease of 14.93%, with a sugar production ratio of 21.24%. The cumulative sugar production was 40.222 million tons, an increase of 0.86% year-on-year. The performance of Thailand's sugar extraction was slightly lower than expected, but the year-on-year decline gradually narrowed. As of January 17th, the sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 16.3%. Indian sugar mills have started large-scale extraction, and as of mid January, they have produced 15.885 million tons of sugar, an increase of 21.63% year-on-year. The overall progress of extraction has accelerated, putting pressure on sugar prices. However, the low sugar prices have made it difficult for India to fulfill its export quota for the new extraction season, and it is expected that the actual export volume will decrease.

The number of new sugar listings in China has increased, but the transaction volume is lower than expected. It is expected that the price of white sugar will mainly fluctuate and weaken in the short term.

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