SunSirs: Copper Prices Fluctuated with a Downward Bias Last Week (January 12-16)

Price trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs, copper prices fluctuated and fell last week. As of the 16th, the price of copper was 101,810 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.42% compared to the beginning of the week, and a year-on-year increase of 49.56%.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, copper prices have fallen for 6 weeks and risen for 6 weeks over the past three months, with a slight decrease last week.

LME copper inventories

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories rose slightly, reaching 141,125 tons by the end of the week, an increase of 2.84% compared to the beginning of the week.

Macroeconomic perspective: At the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched an attack on Venezuela to seize resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland. Risk aversion increased, giving the dollar an opportunity to rebound. Oil prices fell, stock markets showed mixed performance, precious metals such as gold and silver corrected downwards, and copper prices faced downward pressure. The central bank decisively lowered the rediscount and relending rates.

Supply side: Major copper-producing countries such as Chile, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo experienced supply disruptions due to strikes, natural disasters, and geopolitical conflicts. The ICSG predicts that global copper mine production growth will be less than 1% in 2026.  Coupled with the potential "siphoning effect" of possible US tariff increases, expectations of tight supply in non-US regions are strengthening. However, domestic copper concentrate spot TC (treatment and refining charges) have fallen to historical lows, suggesting that the supply vulnerability has already been partially priced in, and the short-term positive impact is weakening.

Demand side: Domestic end-users were in the off-season, with weak trading activity and continuous accumulation of social inventories. Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse inventories had even exceeded 140,000 tons. However, the "14th Five-Year Plan" national power grid investment had reached a new high of 4 trillion RMB, allocated for power grid upgrades and renovations, providing underlying support for high copper prices.

Market outlook

In summary: Amid supply disruptions, the US dollar was rising, and downstream processing companies were gradually closing for the Chinese New Year holiday, leading to a market dominated by essential purchases. During the inventory accumulation period in January and February, copper prices are expected to remain volatile with a generally weaker trend.

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