SunSirs: Last Week, Nickel Prices Rose Initially and Then Fell (January 5-9)

Price trend

According to data from SunSirs' nickel price monitoring, nickel prices fluctuated last week, initially rising before falling. As of the end of the week, the spot price of nickel was 142,816.67 RMB/ton, a 2.56% increase compared to the beginning of the week and a 12.56% increase year-on-year.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, nickel prices have fallen for 5 weeks and risen for 7 weeks over the past 12 weeks, with a recent rapid increase followed by a decline.

Market Analysis

Macroeconomic perspective: At the beginning of 2026, Trump first launched an attack on Venezuela to seize resources, and then exerted pressure on Greenland. Risk aversion increased, giving the dollar an opportunity to rebound. Oil prices fell, stock markets showed mixed performance, precious metals such as gold and silver corrected downwards, and nickel prices faced downward pressure.

In terms of news: The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) claimed that the government planned to significantly reduce nickel ore production quotas by approximately 34% in 2026.  The world's leading nickel producer planned to make significant adjustments to its nickel ore mining quotas for the coming year, and coupled with the temporary suspension of some mining operations by major producers, this had raised concerns about tightening supply in the future. Analysts point out that if these policies are implemented, a substantial shortage in global nickel ore supply could occur, directly impacting the country's production system, which accounts for a large portion of global supply.

Supply side: Refined nickel production is expected to decrease month-on-month. While this reduction will narrow the short-term surplus, overall market supply remains relatively abundant. In November, China's refined nickel production was 25,800 tons, a decrease of 28.1% compared to the previous month.

Demand side: Overall demand from the electroplating downstream sector remained relatively stable, with little prospect of growth in the future. Alloy demand still accounted for the majority, with strong demand from the military and shipbuilding sectors. Companies were buying on dips, and the emphasis on defense spending during the "Two Sessions" is a positive factor in the medium to long term. Stainless steel demand is average, and social inventories are being depleted slowly. Improved steel mill profits may increase supply pressure, and spot transactions remain cautious. Nickel pig iron prices have recently increased slightly. Regarding nickel sulfate, after the peak season inventory build-up, downstream ternary battery production has slightly declined. New capacity coming online in the medium term will also be a limiting factor, and prices have recently fallen.

Market outlook

In summary, recent market trading has mainly revolved around the pace of RKAB quota allocation in Indonesian mines. The actual implementation of these quotas remains to be seen. High valuations and loosening expectations have led to a significant decline in market sentiment. Therefore, nickel prices are expected to experience wide fluctuations and adjustments in the short term.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.