SunSirs: Weak Adjustment of China Domestic Naphtha Market (July 13-17)
July 22 2020 09:54:20 SunSirs (Selena)
As of July 17, the mainstream ex-factory average price of domestic refining and hydrotreating naphtha was 4,540 RMB/ ton, down 0.17% from 4,550 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha in local refining was about 4,350-4,500 RMB/ ton.
The naphtha commodity index on July 17 was 56.00, unchanged with the previous day, down 45.43% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), and 32.58% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the international crude oil market fluctuates within a narrow range of $40, with the positive and negative market offsetting each other, and the market sentiment falls into anxiety. On the one hand, the economy is still in a slow recovery period, and various economic indicators are in order. At present, the rhythm and effect of oil production reduction in oil producing countries are also commendable. On the other hand, the epidemic situation in the United States, Brazil and other countries is still relatively serious, and the number of new cases continues to soar, which makes the worry about crude oil demand rise obviously, and the oil price falls into a bottleneck period.
Market Forecast
The naphtha refining industry fell slightly last week, the manufacturers gradually accumulated their stocks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was general. According to energy analysts of SunSirs, it is expected that the price of local refining and hydrogenation naphtha will continue to decline in the near future, with the average price range of 4,200-4,400 RMB/ ton.
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