SunSirs: With Costs Decreasing, the Price of DOP Initially Stabilized and Then Fell in 2025

The price of DOP initially stabilized and then fell in 2025

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of December 31st, the price of DOP was 7,325.84 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to 8,226.25 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a drop of 10.95%. In 2025, the price of isooctanol remained stable initially before falling, followed by a slight rebound at the end of the year. The overall price level for the year was significantly lower than in 2024.

Supply side: Production capacity was in surplus, and the operating rate remained at a low level

In 2025, the total domestic DOP production capacity was approximately 2.5 million tons per year.  While new capacity came online in 2025, some existing capacity was also retired. The new capacity mainly came from expansion projects by leading companies. In 2025, the operating rate of DOP companies fluctuated between 40% and 70%, with an overall operating rate of less than 60%. Overall, the DOP industry faced overcapacity and low operating rates.

Cost side: Raw material prices continued to weaken

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of December 31st, the price of isooctanol was 6,916.67 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to the price of 7,600 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a drop of 8.99%. The average price of isooctanol in 2025 was 7,249.70 RMB/ton, a decrease of 26.69% compared to the average price of 9,889.58 RMB/ton in 2024, reaching a new low in the past five years. The overcapacity of isooctanol production and ample spot supply, coupled with continuous price reductions by suppliers, led to a continuous decline in isooctanol prices, becoming the main driving force behind the decrease in DOP production costs.

According to SunSirs' commodity price analysis system, as of December 31st, the price of phthalic anhydride was 5,966.67 RMB/ton, a fluctuating decrease compared to the price of 6,600 RMB/ton on January 1st, representing a drop of 9.60%. Affected by the decline in o-xylene prices and the oversupply of phthalic anhydride, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated downwards throughout the year, with a slight rebound in late December.

Market Outlook

According to a data analyst at SunSirs specializing in plasticizer products, the fluctuating decline in the prices of raw materials isooctanol and phthalic anhydride led to a decrease in DOP costs, resulting in a fluctuating decline in DOP prices in 2025. Looking ahead, in the short term, during the first quarter of 2026, inventory replenishment before the Spring Festival coupled with rising raw material prices will likely lead to a fluctuating increase in DOP prices. In the long term, limited new capacity on the supply side and potential marginal improvements from relaxed real estate policies on the demand side are expected to lead to a recovery in demand expectations, resulting in a strong consolidation of DOP plasticizer prices in 2026.

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