SunSirs: The Fluorite Market Declined in 2025, and It Will Recover Slowly in 2026

Fluorite is a key raw material in the fluorochemical industry and a non-renewable, scarce mineral resource. The "National Mineral Resources Plan (2016-2020)" includes fluorite in China's "Strategic Mineral Resources Catalogue," and the "12th Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Fluorochemical Industry" lists fluorite as a "world-class scarce resource similar to rare earth elements." China's fluorite reserves hold a crucial position in global fluorite resources. According to the "14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of China's Fluorochemical Industry," China currently accounts for 69% of the world's fluorite production capacity, 66% of hydrogen fluoride production capacity, 70% of fluorinated refrigerant production capacity, and approximately 60% of the total production capacity of the four major fluoropolymers, making it a major global producer and consumer of fluorochemical products.

Looking back at the fluorite market trends in 2025, domestic fluorite prices showed a downward trend. The average price at the beginning of the year was 3,622.5 RMB/ton, and the average price at the end of the year was 3,400 RMB/ton, representing a 6.14% decrease for the year. As can be seen from the fluorite price trend chart, the highest price in 2025 occurred in early February, reaching 3,762 RMB/ton, while the lowest price occurred in early July, at 3,073 RMB/ton. Overall, the domestic fluorite market showed a downward trend.

The fluorite market in 2025 was mainly divided into four stages:

In the first phase, from early January to early March, the fluorite market experienced a slight price increase. During this period, tight supply of fluorite was the main factor driving the price increase. Domestic fluorite companies had low operating rates, and outdated mines continued to be phased out.  Regarding new mines, mineral exploration work remained challenging. The severe shortage of fluorite mine operations and raw materials led to continuous price increases in the fluorite market.

The second phase, from mid-March to the end of June, saw a significant decline in fluorite prices. During this period, fluorite supply continued to recover, coupled with weak downstream demand and low operating rates in the refrigerant industry, leading to a continuous decline in fluorite prices.

The third phase, covering the third quarter, saw a recovery in the fluorite market. Environmental and safety inspections led to the temporary closure of some mines, tightening supply; a recovery in refrigerant exports boosted demand for hydrofluoric acid, further contributing to the rebound in the fluorite market.

In the fourth quarter, the fluorite market entered its fourth phase, experiencing a downward trend.  This phase coincided with the traditional off-season and a 40% increase in low-priced imports from Mongolia. The losses in the hydrofluoric acid market widened, and procurement volumes decreased by 12% year-on-year. Overall, the fluorite market declined in 2025.

As a non-renewable and scarce mineral resource, how will the fluorite market perform in 2026? The driving factors for the fluorite market in 2026 are as follows:

(I) The core logic supporting the price

Supply side constraints further intensified

Domestic market: High-quality fluorite resources are being depleted at an accelerated pace, mine safety and environmental protection standards are continuously being upgraded, and new production capacity is almost zero. The industry's operating rate remains at a low level of 55%-60%.  Increased costs for mining rights and technological upgrades have led to an 8%-10% increase in fluorite mining costs compared to 2025, providing strong price support (expected strong support at 3000 RMB/ton).

Global: Resource control is becoming stricter in major producing countries such as Mexico and South Africa, and the export volume of fluorite is expected to decrease by 5% year-on-year.  The tight supply in the international market will drive up domestic import costs. Global fluorite distribution is relatively concentrated; Mexico possesses 68 million tons of reserves, accounting for 26%, followed by China with 49 million tons, accounting for 19%. South Africa, Mongolia, and Spain also have significant reserves, with the top five countries collectively accounting for 73%. In contrast, Japan, South Korea, India, the European Union, and the United States have very little fluorite resource reserves, creating a structural scarcity.

Demand structure was diversifying: emerging sectors were taking over from traditional sources of demand

In the new energy sector: the demand for lithium hexafluorophosphate (used in energy storage batteries) and PVDF (used in lithium-ion batteries/photovoltaic membranes) is expected to increase by 15%-20% year-on-year, driving an increase in annual fluorite demand of approximately 30,000 tons. 

In the refrigerant sector: Quota policies may be slightly relaxed (expected operating rates to recover to 40%-45%), coupled with the start of the overseas air conditioning replacement cycle, leading to a 6%-8% year-on-year increase in export demand and marginal improvement in traditional demand.

(II) Main factors suppressing prices

Traditional demand recovery is limited: the refrigerant industry is still constrained by environmental policies, domestic consumer (appliance) demand remains weak, and the annual operating rate is unlikely to exceed 50%.  Hydrofluoric acid producers still show resistance to high-priced fluorite.

Diversification of import sources: With the release of Mongolian fluorite production capacity, import volumes are expected to increase by another 10%-15% in 2026, and low-priced imports will suppress domestic price increases. In earlier years, China mainly relied on exporting crude products such as fluorite to overseas countries for refining into high-value-added products, which were then re-imported into China, resulting in the disguised loss of fluorite resources. With stricter government control over fluorite resources, fluorite exports have steadily declined while imports have increased significantly. Statistics show that China's fluorite export volume has continuously decreased, while import volume has increased substantially.  In addition, China's reduction of fluorite import tariffs has promoted the import of fluorite-related products, which has had a certain inhibitory effect on fluorite prices.

In summary, national policies impose strict requirements on the fluorite industry, designating fluorite as a "strategic mineral resource" due to its scarcity and significant strategic importance.  The policy trend towards protective development is becoming increasingly clear, with rising demands on enterprise scale, technology, and environmental protection. The position and value of fluorite in the industrial chain are expected to further improve. However, market fluctuations in traditional sectors are also a major factor affecting fluorite prices, leading to intensified bullish and bearish forces. It is projected that in 2026, the fluorite market will exhibit characteristics of "rising bottom and range-bound fluctuations," with the core logic being "strengthened supply constraints + differentiated demand structure." The price center will slightly increase compared to 2025, but weak traditional demand will still limit the extent of the increase.

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