SunSirs: Tin Market Review and Outlook 2025

In 2025, the price of tin exhibited an upward trend characterized by first rising, then falling, and subsequently climbing again. In the first quarter, the tight supply at the mining end was gradually reflected at the smelting end, and supported by this, the tin price showed a fluctuating upward trend. In mid-March, the civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) further escalated, leading to the suspension of production at major local tin mines, which pushed the bullish sentiment in the market to a peak. After the Qingming Festival holiday, prices of all commodities in the market generally declined. Following a restorative rebound in the trading market, Shanghai tin entered a phase of narrow-range fluctuations. During this period, there were short-term upward movements due to disturbances from news related to the mining sector, but overall, it remained within a narrow range. It was not until September that the price of Shanghai tin once again saw a shift in its fluctuation center upwards due to supply issues at the mining end, and it surged significantly at the end of September as the Indonesian government cracked down on illegal tin ore smuggling. Afterwards, driven by capital sentiment and sector resonance, the price of Shanghai tin continued to perform strongly. Moreover, due to a sharp decline in Indonesia's refined tin export data, market concerns about the global supply side intensified.

The supply of tin ore may be tight first and then loose.

Since the beginning of this year, there have been increasing disruptions in tin ore supply. When the Wa region in Myanmar had not yet resumed production, tin mines in the Democratic Republic of the Congo were forced to suspend operations. Although the suspension period was not long, it still added to the already tight global tin ore supply situation. At the end of the year, the situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo deteriorated again. Although there has been no news of production suspension, the market has strong concerns about the stability of future supply.

Looking at the global tin ore supply in 2025, there are few new projects put into production, and the increase in ore output is limited. The situation where supply struggles to meet the growth in downstream demand will continue. On one hand, Indonesia, a major global tin ore producing country, continues to severely crack down on illegal mines to strengthen resource management. Meanwhile, the main mines in traditional tin-producing countries such as China and Indonesia generally face problems of declining ore grades and increased mining difficulties, resulting in limited future output growth. On the other hand, the Wa region in Myanmar, regarded as a potential source of supply growth, has seen its production resumption progress fall short of market expectations so far, and its role in supplementing global supply remains to be unleashed.

Based on the current situation, it is expected that global tin ore production will achieve a slight growth in 2026, but the growth rate will be limited, and the overall supply will remain tight, making it difficult to meet the continuously growing demand. Data from the Tin Industry Branch of the China Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Association shows that there may be an increase of 4,500 metal tons in global tin ore in 2026. The ITA predicts that global tin ore production may reach approximately 360,000 tons in 2026.

China was once the world's largest producer of tin ore, but its output has been declining year by year in recent years. The excessive exploitation of tin ore resources in China is severe, with low-grade reserve tin resources, limited newly identified resource reserves, and most key tin mines facing the problem of resource depletion, resulting in a slow decline in production capacity. In recent years, China's tin ore output has basically remained at around 90,000 tons. In 2023, China produced 68,000 tons of tin ore, a year-on-year decrease of 4.23%. After 2024, due to a slight increase in refined tin prices, tin ore output increased slightly. In 2025, due to tight supply of imported ore and the expansion of some mines in previous years, China's tin concentrate output continued to show a small growth trend.

Since the beginning of this year, the price of tin concentrate has shown a volatile and relatively strong trend. Although there was a wave of rising and then falling from March to April, the overall center of the fluctuation has moved upward. In terms of processing fees, due to the continuous impact of ore shortages, they have been running weakly. After continuing to decline in the first half of this year, the current processing fees have reached the lowest level in recent years, and smelters are also on the verge of losses. As of December 2, the average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Jiangxi and Hunan regions was 8,000 yuan per ton; the average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan region was 12,000 yuan per ton.

The output of refined tin will maintain growth

In the past two years, the tight supply at the mining end has, to a certain extent, affected the operation of refined tin smelting capacity. In addition, the seasonal maintenance of some smelters has also impacted the capacity. Judging from the current situation at the mining end, the operating rate of smelters may gradually rebound from a low level, and it is expected that the growth rate of refined tin supply in 2026 will be slightly higher than that in 2025.

Since the beginning of this year, the import window for refined tin has basically remained closed. Looking at the data, in October, the import volume of refined tin shrank significantly to 526 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 58.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 82.8%. The main importing countries were Bolivia, Peru, and Indonesia, with 198 tons, 175 tons, and 125 tons respectively, accounting for 94.7% of the total imports. Exports of refined tin also turned downward, reaching 1,480 tons in the month, a month-on-month decrease of 15.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%. In the first 10 months of 2025, China imported a total of 16,600 tons of refined tin, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; cumulative exports of refined tin reached 18,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%; and cumulative net exports of refined tin were 1,546 tons. The inversion of domestic and foreign prices has made China a net exporter of refined tin in 2025. Judging from the current changes in price differences, it is still difficult to open the import window in the short term.

Tinplate production declines while exports grow

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2024, China's tinplate output reached 12.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, mainly driven by the continuous growth in demand from downstream industries such as home appliances, food packaging, and automobile manufacturing. However, after entering 2025, due to the substitution of chromed plates and the decline in domestic demand, China's tinplate output has shown a significant downward trend. In October, the output of tinplate was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous month, and the same as that in October 2024. From January to October, the cumulative output was 1.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.02%.

In contrast to the weakening domestic demand, China's tinplate exports have performed well. From January to October, the total export volume of tinplate in China reached 1.6999 million tons, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19.95%.

It should be noted that as a traditional consumer sector, the position of tinplate as a packaging material is gradually being squeezed by other new materials. In addition, except for Europe and the United States, other countries and regions may also follow suit in initiating anti-dumping and other trade remedy investigations, which will narrow global export channels and cast a shadow over the future export situation of tinplate.

The growth cycle of electronic products may be drawing to a close

Latest data shows that from January to September, the output of complete electronic computer units in China was 261.907 million units, with a cumulative growth of 0.4%, and the growth rate has narrowed significantly. The data on mobile phones also showed a mediocre performance. From January to September, the cumulative output of smartphones in China was 881.03 million units, a year-on-year increase of 1%.

Looking ahead to 2026, the intensity of subsidies for consumer electronics will likely continue. However, the cyclical nature of durable consumer goods will restrict further growth in their production and sales volumes. Therefore, it is expected that in 2026, the growth rates of production and sales of computers and mobile phones may slow down somewhat, but will remain at a positive growth level.

The output of integrated circuits will continue to maintain rapid growth.

Since 2024, the growth rate of integrated circuit production in China has significantly increased.
In 2024, China's integrated circuit output reached 451.42 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 22.2%.
The latest data shows that from January to October 2025, China's cumulative output of integrated circuits reached 386.6 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.2%. Judging from the above data, the output of integrated circuits has increased after the cyclical bottoming out and stabilization of electronic products. The growth rate slightly accelerated in the later part of the second quarter, but rose sharply and then fell back in the third quarter after entering the off-season. In recent years, the rise of related industries such as AI and robotics has continuously increased the demand for computing power, and the closely related semiconductor industry has also shown a vigorous development trend. With the cyclical recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to maintain a high growth rate in the medium and long term.

The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from a period of rapid development

In recent years, the ultra-rapid development of photovoltaic installations has also led to overcapacity in the industry. With the decline in the price of photovoltaic modules, the per-watt profitability of enterprises has significantly decreased, affecting the long-term healthy development of the industry. As for 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and capacity growth will be more orderly. According to the prediction of the European Photovoltaic Association, the global new photovoltaic installations will reach 665GW in 2026. Wood Mackenzie predicts that under the scenario of accelerated marketization of electricity trading in China, the growth rate of photovoltaic installations will slow down significantly from 2026 to 2034, during which the average annual installation volume will drop to 312GW. Assuming that the tin consumption of 1GW photovoltaic installations is about 65 tons, the global new tin demand for photovoltaics is expected to reach 43,000 tons in 2026, and China will also reach about 20,000 tons.

New energy vehicles maintain growth

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million units and 12.943 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. The sales volume of new energy vehicles accounted for 46.7% of the total sales volume of new vehicles.

Currently, due to the large price difference between fuel and electricity, new energy vehicles have an obvious advantage in terms of vehicle usage costs. With the support of national energy structure adjustment policies, the sales volume of new energy vehicles has maintained a relatively high growth rate. From a long-term perspective, the period of rapid development of new energy vehicles will eventually come to an end, and the growth rate of production and sales will slow down from a fast pace. However, the marginal increment they contribute should not be underestimated and will surpass other consumption fields. It is expected that the growth rate of production and sales of new energy vehicles will be between 15% and 20% in 2026.

Tin inventories first rose and then fell

In 2025, the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) continued to increase, and it did not start to decrease until mid-April. It began to accumulate again in early July and then started to decrease once more in August. However, the LME tin inventory kept declining from the beginning of the year and started to accumulate in mid-August. As of December 1, the SHFE tin inventory was 6,290 tons, and the LME tin inventory was 3,145 tons, totaling 9,435 tons.

Regarding premiums and discounts, in 2024, the LME tin premium/discount remained basically in a discount state. After entering 2025, the discount range narrowed somewhat, and the import window also showed an intermittent opening trend.

Overall, in 2025, the price of tin showed an oscillating upward trend. During this period, the alternating disturbances in the market caused by the suspension of tin mine production due to civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and the news of the resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, became important catalysts for the market trend. Except for the brief impact of systemic risks after the Qingming Festival holiday, the upward trend of prices throughout the year was relatively smooth. At the end of September, the Indonesian government cracked down on illegal tin ore smuggling, which heightened market concerns about supply, and its refined tin exports further declined. In addition, apart from the driving force of mine-side events, the improvement of the macro environment and the overall resonance of the non-ferrous metal sector were also among the main drivers pushing up tin prices.

Looking ahead to 2026, at the macro level, the global interest rate cut cycle is expected to continue, and the cyclical upward trend of the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to show a rotation among various metals led by copper. The China-U.S. trade frictions persist, and there may still be significant uncertainties in the future. In terms of fundamentals, it is highly probable that the supply side will gradually ease, but there are also bright spots in downstream demand, and the overall supply and demand are likely to maintain a tight balance. Uncertainties remain. Against the backdrop of geopolitical risks and de-globalization, the reshaping of the supply chain may cause tin, as a key metal resource, to continue to show a structurally tight situation. Therefore, in 2026, tin prices are expected to remain relatively strong, with the trend possibly characterized by rising first and then falling, and the overall center of gravity shifting upward. The main operating range of Shanghai tin prices is expected to be 250,000 yuan to 350,000 yuan per ton, and the main operating range of London tin prices is expected to be 30,000 US dollars to 48,000 US dollars per ton.

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