SunSirs: China Sugar Prices Fluctuated Downward in 2025, and May Continue to Decline in 2026

In 2025, the overall price of white sugar is expected to fluctuate downward, with a slight increase in sugarcane planting area and yield on the domestic supply side, resulting in an increase in sugar production. Demand side: Downstream consumption growth is slow, and the demand for white sugar in industries such as food and beverage has not significantly increased. Terminal procurement is mainly based on demand, and there is significant pressure on inventory accumulation. Overall trend: According to the testing data of SunSirs, the cumulative decline of domestic first grade white sugar within the year is 14.29%, and the main contract of Zhengzhou Sugar in China has fallen below the 5,100 RMB/ton mark, hitting a new low. The core factor is that global sugar supply has shifted from a shortage during the 2024/25 crushing season to a severe expected surplus, which is the fundamental reason for the weakening of prices throughout the year.

Forecast of Sugar Price Trends in 2026

Global supply side forecast (increase)

Global major producing countries are showing a pattern of increased production, with Brazil expected to produce 42 million tons in 2025/2026; Thailand's production will increase to 10.7 million tons; The estimated production in India is 35.3-35.9 million tons. Overall, the global sugar production for the 2025/26 production quarter is expected to increase by 4.45% year-on-year during the 25/26 crushing season.

Global demand forecast (flat)

The growth rate of global per capita GDP is positively correlated with the growth rate of sugar consumption, with a global GDP growth rate of 4.05%. It is expected that the global sugar consumption will increase by 0.85% year-on-year in the 25/26 crushing season, following the growth of per capita GDP. The consumption of white sugar is characterized by moderate growth and regional differentiation. As the world's largest sugar consuming country, India's consumption growth is mainly driven by population and demand, with an expected growth rate of 2%; The health consumption concept of American residents suppresses demand, and per capita sugar consumption has been declining for two consecutive years. It is expected to maintain a 2% decline rate in the new quarter; Domestic consumption for the 25/26 production season is expected to remain the same as the previous quarter.

Domestic production forecast (increase in production)

The national sugar production during the 2024/25 sugar production period is 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons. The expected national sugar production during the 2025/2026 sugar production period is about 11.4 million tons, an increase of 240,000 tons year-on-year. The expected sugar production in Guangxi during the 2025/2026 crushing season is 6.8 million tons, an increase of 330,000 tons year-on-year; Yunnan produces 2.45 million tons of sugar, an increase of 30,000 tons year-on-year.

Domestic supply forecast (increase)

During the 25/26 crushing season, domestic sugar production increased by 3% year-on-year, corresponding to an increase of approximately 335,000 tons; On the import side, the import of syrup and pre mixed powder has decreased, while the import of additional raw sugar has increased significantly, with direct sugar imports increasing by about 450,000 tons year-on-year. Overall, the total domestic sugar supply during the 25/26 crushing season increased by 210,000 tons year-on-year, with a growth rate of 1.1%.

Domestic consumption forecast (basically unchanged)

By 2025, the cumulative year-on-year production of soft drinks and dairy products in China will decrease by 2%, and the inventory of finished products in the downstream food and beverage industry will be in a state of accumulation. However, the domestic consumption environment is gradually recovering, coupled with low sugar prices and natural population growth, it is not advisable to be overly pessimistic about sugar consumption. It is expected that the domestic sugar consumption in the 25/26 crushing season will be basically the same as the previous season.

Domestic inventory forecast (increase)

The inventory at the end of 2024/25 may increase by 1.08 million tons to around 1.9285 million tons, which is at a relatively high historical level. It is expected that the national sugar inventory will continue to increase to over 2.9 million tons during the 2025/26 sugar production period, and the accumulated inventory will continue. Sugar production has increased for three consecutive crushing seasons, coupled with an increase in imports, resulting in an expected increase of about 1 million tons in ending inventory, further increasing inventory pressure.

Domestic import volume forecast (increase)

The main source of domestic sugar imports is Brazil. Although India has introduced an export quota of 1.5 million tons this year, the actual export volume is low due to the suppression of low international sugar prices. The amount of Indian sugar imported domestically is relatively small, and the import increment mainly comes from Brazil raw sugar. The cumulative import during the 2024/2025 crushing season was 4.63 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 120,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic sugar import volume during the 25/26 crushing season will be around 5.1 million tons, an increase of 470,000 tons year-on-year.

Overall outlook:

The global consumption growth rate during the 25/26 crushing season is lower than the supply growth rate, and domestic sugar production has maintained growth for three consecutive years. Coupled with the easing of international sugar supply and demand, it is difficult for domestic imports to experience a significant decline. In the first half of 2026, the center of gravity of sugar prices will be weak, and it is expected that the overall market will likely fluctuate and find a bottom.

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