SunSirs: Glass Cold Repair Accelerates Supply Contraction, Spot Prices Under Pressure

On December 30, the main glass futures contract surged over 3% intraday, signaling a significant rebound in market sentiment. Analysts attribute this rally to dual catalysts: supply contraction driven by concentrated cold repairs and rising cost expectations stemming from energy transformation policies.

Intensive Cold Repairs Drive Substantial Supply Reduction

Between December 29 and 31, four production lines—Qibin Changxing Line 4 (600 tons/day), Pinghu Line 1 (600 tons/day), Donghai Taihe Line 1 (800 tons/day), and Longyan Zhongbo Line 1 (700 tons/day)—successively scheduled water-cooling shutdowns. Projections indicate that planned cold repairs will intensify from year-end through January 2026, accelerating the decline in daily float glass melting volume. As of now, daily melting volume has dropped to 153,900 tons—a new annual low—representing a 600-ton/day decrease from the previous week. With additional planned cold repairs expected before the Spring Festival, supply-side contraction will continue steadily, providing direct support to futures prices.

Policy Developments Stir Sentiment; Energy Upgrades Heighten Cost Expectations

Beyond supply reductions, policy-related news has injected a shot in the arm for the market. Hubei authorities yesterday summoned glass manufacturers, mandating the transition from petroleum coke to natural gas or electrified energy by August 31, 2026. This transformation has long been policy-backed—the Hubei Province Glass Industry Comprehensive Atmospheric Environment Improvement Implementation Plan explicitly requires clean energy conversion by the end of 2026. While this meeting represents routine progress, it has positively disrupted market sentiment in the short term. Yide Futures emphasized the need to monitor cost escalation expectations stemming from energy structure optimization. Calculations indicate that current weekly profits for natural gas, coal-based gas, and petroleum coke production lines are all in the red, with natural gas lines recording weekly losses of 186.40 yuan/ton.

Collective Price Hikes by Manufacturers, Robust Production-Sales Data Confirming Demand Improvement

Multiple glass manufacturers across regions have recently implemented concentrated price increases: Fujian Ruibo and Fuzhou Xinfuxing plan to raise float glass prices by 20 yuan/ton on December 30; Qibin Group's Zhangzhou and Heyuan bases plan to increase large-panel Low-E glass by 1 yuan/m², clear glass by 20 yuan/ton, and colored coated glass by 40 yuan/ton on December 31; Henan Zhonglian will raise all ultra-clear products by 2 yuan/cubic meter starting January 1. Data indicates yesterday's production-to-sales ratio in the Shahe region reached 143%, with East China and South China also exceeding 100%, signaling significantly improved shipment volumes. Although production-to-sales ratios in major regions mostly remain above 100%, sustained spot transaction activity requires monitoring due to weak terminal demand.

Market Outlook: Cold repairs persist alongside inventory pressure

Cold repairs on production lines scheduled from December through the pre-Spring Festival period may impact pricing for distant months and market expectations. Policy disruptions to supply also warrant ongoing attention. Realistically, while supply contraction expectations are clear, high inventory levels in the midstream glass sector require digestion, and the terminal market is entering a slow season, maintaining pressure on the spot market. Market dynamics will center on the dynamic equilibrium between cold repair progress, policy implementation intensity, and the pace of terminal demand recovery.

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