SunSirs: Energy Industries Bulk Commodity Intelligence (December 31, 2025)

Macroeconomics

1. [PMI] According to the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, rising into the expansion range; the Non-manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.2%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The composite PMI output index was 50.7%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that my country's enterprise production and operation activities generally expanded compared to the previous month.

2. [Total Social Logistics] According to the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing, from January to November, the total social logistics volume nationwide was 331.2 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 5.0% at comparable prices, with a 4.5% increase in November.

3. [Federal Reserve] The minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting showed that the FOMC agreed to cut interest rates at the December meeting, but officials were sharply divided. Some participants indicated that, based on their economic outlook, it might be necessary to keep the target interest rate range unchanged for some time after lowering the interest rate range at this meeting. The minutes also showed that if inflation gradually declines as expected, most officials believe that further interest rate cuts would be appropriate. The committee members unanimously agreed that reserve balances have fallen to a sufficient level, and the committee will begin purchasing short-term Treasury bonds as needed to continuously maintain sufficient reserve supply. They also agreed to remove the overall limit on standing repurchase operations.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On December 30, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the February contract for US WTI crude oil futures was $57.95 per barrel, a decrease of $0.13 or 0.2%. The settlement price of the March contract for Brent crude oil futures was $61.33 per barrel, a decrease of $0.16 or 0.3%.

2. [Crude Oil] On December 30, US energy services company Baker Hughes stated in its closely watched report that the number of active oil and gas drilling rigs of US energy companies increased for the second consecutive week. As of the week ending December 30, the total number of oil and gas drilling rigs, a leading indicator of future production, increased by 1 to 546, the highest level since December 12, but still 43 fewer than the same period last year, a decrease of 7.3%.

3. [Crude Oil] On December 30, data released by the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil, gasoline, and distillate inventories increased last week. For the week ending December 26, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.7 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 1 million barrels compared to the previous week.

4. [Crude Oil] According to three representatives, given the increasingly evident signs of a global oil supply surplus, OPEC+ is expected to stick to its planned production freeze when it meets this weekend.

5. [LNG] Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports may see their largest increase in three years in 2025, with shipping data monitoring agency Kpler estimating a 4% year-on-year increase to 429 million tons (the largest increase since 2022), mainly due to the ramp-up of new capacity in North America (Canada LNG Canada and the US Plaquemines project).

6. [Petroleum Coke] On December 30, Yiatong Petrochemical's petroleum coke price was 1,630 RMB/ton, an increase of 30 RMB/ton from the previous trading day, with a sulfur content of 4.7. The delayed coking unit has a capacity of 1.2 million tons/year and a daily output of 850 tons.

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