SunSirs: China Expects Steel Export Growth to Continue in 2026

Customs data shows that in November, China exported 9.98 million tons of steel, marking a 7.6% year-on-year increase and reversing the previous month's decline, with a 2% month-on-month rise. In the first 11 months of this year, China's cumulative steel exports reached 107.7 million tons, up 6.7% year-on-year. China's steel trade maintained a significant net export trend in November. According to calculations by Lange Steel Research Center, China's net steel exports in November reached 9.484 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%, reversing the previous year-on-year decline. In the first 11 months of this year, China's net steel exports totaled 102.176 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%.

In December, China's steel exports are expected to remain between 9 million and 10 million tons, with the full-year figure likely growing by around 6% year-on-year.

First, China's steel exports retain a price advantage. According to Lange Steel Research Center monitoring, as of December 8, China's hot-rolled coil export quotation (FOB) stood at $450/ton, while major plate exporting countries like India, Turkey, and Japan quoted $483/ton, $520/ton, and $490/ton respectively—all higher than China's price. China's hot-rolled coil export prices were $33/ton lower than India's, $70/ton lower than Turkey's, and $40/ton lower than Japan's, demonstrating a clear price advantage.

Second, overseas supply continues to recover. In October, crude steel production across 70 countries and regions tracked by the World Steel Association reached 143.3 million tons, down 5.9% year-on-year. Excluding China, other countries and regions produced 71.3 million tons of crude steel, a 1.6% year-on-year increase, though the growth rate slowed by 1.1 percentage points.

Third, the global manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) declined. In November, the global manufacturing PMI stood at 49.6%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month. Currently, the pace of global manufacturing recovery has slowed. Against the backdrop of frequent trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts, global trade and investment scale remain constrained, with persistent pressure from shrinking demand. However, China's manufacturing PMI new export orders index reached 47.6% in November, a notable 1.7 percentage point increase from the previous month. Stabilizing exports are expected to drive the recovery of manufacturing demand.

Fourth, the export order index for steel enterprises has re-entered contraction territory. According to PMI data for the steel sector, China's steel export order index fell back into contraction in November, reaching 47.2%—a 7.1 percentage point month-on-month decline. This suggests that China's steel exports are likely to face constraints in the near term.

Fifth, persistent global trade protectionism continues to pose severe challenges for steel exports. Since late October, trade remedy investigations targeting the steel industry have intensified. On October 24, Australia initiated anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigations on Chinese flat-rolled steel products. On October 27, Thailand launched anti-circumvention investigations into Chinese hot-dip galvanized cold-rolled coil cases, while Vietnam initiated anti-circumvention investigations on Chinese hot-rolled coil products. On November 25, Australia launched an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese welded wire mesh products. On November 28, South Korea initiated an anti-dumping investigation on Chinese galvanized cold-rolled steel. These measures will continue to constrain exports of relevant steel products from China.

Overall, China's steel enterprises have seen their export order index fall back into contraction territory. While external factors have stabilized manufacturing demand to some extent, it remains relatively weak. Concurrently, the global crude steel production continues to recover, compounded by trade frictions and related tariff policies, which collectively suppress China's steel exports. With the implementation of the export license management system for certain steel products starting January 1 next year, China's steel export landscape will undergo new changes.

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