SunSirs: Yesterday's Cotton Market Price Tracking

On December 24, the average price of imported cotton upon arrival (M Index) was 72.41 cents/lb, up 0.45 cents/lb from the 23rd. The import cost after 1% tariff (excluding port charges) was 12,455 RMB/ton, and the import cost after sliding scale tax (excluding port charges) was 13,565 RMB/ton. The domestic average price for 3128 cotton (B Index) was 15,237 RMB/ton, up 22 RMB/ton from the 23rd. Xinjiang cotton delivered to Shandong factory price for 3128B grade: ¥15,325/ton, up ¥20/ton from the 23rd. National Cotton Basis Index CNCottonJ (CF2605): ¥920/ton, up ¥7/ton from December 23rd.

Domestic Cotton Market

According to data from the China Cotton Quality Notary Inspection Network, as of December 22, 2025, the cumulative notary inspection of lint cotton for the 2025/26 season nationwide reached 5.8825 million tons (including 5.8159 million tons of supervised notary inspections in Xinjiang). This represents an increase of 716,500 tons compared to the same period last year, marking a year-on-year growth of 13.87%.

This season's cotton market launch period has been brought forward, with most ginning mills adopting a “short, flat, fast” approach (concentrating processing, warehousing, inspection, and sales more intensely than previous years). Processing periods have also significantly shortened (except for a few cotton enterprises in Kashgar and Aksu still operating intermittently, cotton processing across Xinjiang has largely concluded). Combined with this year's more timely and efficient public inspection of Xinjiang cotton, the year-on-year growth rate of cumulative public inspections nationwide is expected to continue declining from late December to March next year.

Surveys of Xinjiang cotton regulatory warehouses and delivery warehouses indicate that the cumulative public inspection volume of 2025/26 Xinjiang cotton entering storage has increased by over 700,000 tons compared to the previous year. However, the total commercial cotton inventory remains slightly lower than the same period last year. This is partly because the initial commercial inventory of Xinjiang cotton in storage for the 2025/26 season was significantly lower than the previous year. On the other hand, since October, cotton processors, traders, and inland textile mills have accelerated the transfer of Xinjiang cotton, resulting in a significant portion of cotton warehouses within Xinjiang experiencing “rapid entry and equally rapid exit.”

As Xinjiang cotton inventories in inland warehouses continued to grow rapidly in November and December, more cotton enterprises began quoting prices for pending orders (many companies started “pre-selling” cotton even before shipment or while it was still in transit). As Zhengzhou Cotton's main CF2605 contract broke through the 14,000 RMB/ton resistance level, cotton spinning mills saw declining spot profits and a pronounced slowdown in new orders during the off-season. Cotton-using enterprises have become more cautious or have temporarily suspended raw material restocking. It is expected that the basis for Xinjiang cotton in inland warehouses will gradually decline, narrowing the price gap with resources in Xinjiang warehouses.

International Cotton Market

Customs data indicates China imported 147,700 metric tons of cotton yarn in November 2025, marking a 4.60% month-on-month increase and a 20.28% year-on-year rise. The month-on-month growth rate continued to expand compared to October (approximately 13.54% year-on-year). Although Vietnam remained the top source of cotton yarn imports, its share dropped to 55.61%. Imports from Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Bangladesh, and Indonesia accounted for 12.30%, 11.52%, 5.94%, 5.45%, and 3.59% respectively. The gap between India's cotton yarn imports and Pakistan's has narrowed significantly for consecutive periods. Emerging Southeast Asian textile nations like Malaysia and Bangladesh are increasingly competitive in exporting cotton yarn and blended yarn, with a growing trend of capturing market share from Vietnam, Pakistan, and India in China's cotton yarn market.

Since mid-December, the growth momentum of Indian compact spun yarn and air-jet spun yarn arriving at ports/warehouses has been more pronounced compared to Vietnamese or Pakistani yarn. Meanwhile, bonded/shipment volumes of Indonesian polyester-cotton blended yarn, Malaysian air-jet spun yarn/knitted yarn, and Bangladeshi low-count yarn have remained relatively stable, with traders' inventory increases progressing at a slower pace. As India, Pakistan, and other countries have switched to 100% Brazilian, Australian, U.S., and West African cotton blends for their yarn production (with Bangladesh yarns showing a slightly higher proportion of West African cotton), yarn quality metrics continue to improve. Coupled with gradually recovering production capacity following new trade agreements signed between these nations and the Trump administration, Vietnamese cotton yarn exports face heightened challenges in the Chinese market.

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