SunSirs: Tin Prices Fluctuated Upwards Overall and Are Expected to Remain Relatively Strong in the Future - 2025 Tin Market Review and Outlook

In 2025, tin prices experienced a volatile upward trend, initially rising, then falling, and finally rising again. In the first quarter, the tight supply at the mining end gradually materialized at the smelting end, supporting a fluctuating upward trend in tin prices. In mid-March, the unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo further intensified, leading to the closure of important tin mines in the region, pushing market bullish sentiment to its peak. After the Qingming Festival holiday, all commodities experienced a general decline. Following a corrective rebound, Shanghai tin prices entered a period of narrow-range fluctuation. During this period, short-term price increases occurred due to disruptions in mine supply, but the overall trend remained within a narrow range. It wasn't until September that Shanghai tin prices again saw an upward shift in their fluctuation range due to supply issues at the mining end, and surged significantly at the end of September due to the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin mining and smuggling. Subsequently, driven by market sentiment and sector-wide momentum, Shanghai tin prices continued to operate at a strong level, and concerns about global supply intensified due to a significant decline in Indonesian refined tin export data.

Tin ore supply may be tight at the beginning and loose at the end.

This year, disruptions to tin supply have increased. While tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, had not yet resumed production, tin mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) were forced to suspend operations. Although the suspension was brief, it further exacerbated the already tight global tin supply situation. Towards the end of the year, the situation in the DRC deteriorated again, and although no news of production stoppages has been reported yet, the market has strong concerns about the stability of future supply.

Looking at the global tin supply in 2025, the limited number of new projects coming online and the limited increase in ore production will likely continue to result in a supply shortage relative to downstream demand growth. On the one hand, Indonesia, a major global tin producer, continues its strict crackdown on illegal mining to strengthen resource management, while the main mines in traditional tin-producing countries like China and Indonesia generally face declining ore grades and increasing mining difficulties, limiting future production increases. On the other hand, the Wa State region of Myanmar, considered a potential source of increased supply, is currently not resuming production as quickly as the market expected, and its contribution to global supply remains to be seen.

Based on current conditions, global tin mine production is expected to see a slight increase in 2026, but the growth rate will be limited, and overall supply will remain tight, making it difficult to meet continuously growing demand. Data from the Tin Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association shows that in 2026, there may be an increase of 4,500 metric tons of tin concentrate globally. The ITA (International Tin Association) predicts that global tin mine production will reach approximately 360,000 tons in 2026.

China was once the world's largest tin producer, but production has declined year by year in recent years. China's tin resources have been severely overexploited, and the remaining reserves are of low grade, with limited newly discovered reserves. Most major tin mines are facing resource depletion, resulting in a slow decline in production capacity. In recent years, China's tin production has remained at around 90,000 tons. In 2023, China produced 68,000 tons of tin ore, a decrease of 4.23% year-on-year. After 2024, due to a rise in refined tin prices, tin ore production increased slightly. In 2025, due to tight supply of imported ore and expansion of some mines, China's tin concentrate production continued to show a slight increase.

Since the beginning of this year, tin concentrate prices have shown a volatile but generally upward trend. Although there was a surge followed by a decline in March and April, the overall price level has shifted upwards. Processing fees, affected by the tight supply of ore, have remained weak. After a continuous decline in the first half of the year, current processing fees have reached their lowest level in recent years, and smelters are on the verge of losses. As of December 2nd, the average processing fee for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan provinces was 8,000 RMB/ton; the average processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan province was 12,000 RMB/ton.

Refined tin production will continue to increase

In the past two years, tight supply of tin ore has, to some extent, affected the operating rate of refined tin smelters. In addition, seasonal maintenance at some smelters has also impacted production capacity. Given the current situation in the tin ore market, the operating rate of smelters is expected to gradually rebound from its low point, and the growth rate of refined tin supply in 2026 is projected to be slightly higher than in 2025.

Since the beginning of this year, the import window for refined tin has remained largely closed. According to the data, in October, refined tin imports plummeted to 526 tons, a decrease of 58.6% month-on-month and 82.8% year-on-year. The main importing countries were Bolivia, Peru, and Indonesia, accounting for 198 tons, 175 tons, and 125 tons respectively, representing 94.7% of the total imports. Refined tin exports also declined, reaching 1,480 tons in October, a decrease of 15.3% month-on-month and 4.6% year-on-year. In the first ten months of 2025, China imported a total of 16,600 tons of refined tin, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%; cumulative exports reached 18,100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 32.3%; resulting in a net export of 1,546 tons. The price inversion between domestic and international markets led to China becoming a net exporter of refined tin in 2025.  Based on current price differences, the import window is unlikely to reopen in the short term.

Tinplate production declined while exports increased

According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in 2024, China's tinplate production reached 12.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, mainly driven by the sustained growth in demand from downstream industries such as home appliances, food packaging, and automobile manufacturing. However, after entering 2025, due to the substitution of chrome-plated steel and a decline in domestic demand, China's tinplate production showed a significant downward trend. In October, tinplate production was 110,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 10,000 tons, and remained unchanged compared to October 2024. From January to October, the cumulative production was 1.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.02%.

Compared to the weakening domestic demand, China's tinplate exports performed well. From January to October, China's total tinplate exports reached 1.6999 million tons, representing a cumulative year-on-year increase of 19.95%.

It is important to note that tinplate, a traditional material in the consumer goods sector, is gradually being displaced by other new materials in packaging applications. Furthermore, besides Europe and the United States, other countries and regions may also initiate anti-dumping and other trade remedy investigations, narrowing global export channels and casting a shadow over the future export prospects of tinplate.

The growth cycle for electronic products may be nearing its end

According to the latest data, from January to September, China's production of complete electronic computers reached 261.907 million units, a cumulative increase of 0.4%, representing a significant slowdown in growth. Mobile phone data also showed a similar trend, with China's cumulative production of smartphones reaching 881.03 million units from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 1%.

Looking ahead to 2026, subsidies for consumer electronics are likely to continue, but the cyclical nature of durable consumer goods will constrain further growth in their production and sales. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of computer and mobile phone production and sales may slow down in 2026, but will still maintain positive growth.

Integrated circuit production will continue to maintain rapid growth

Since 2024, China's integrated circuit production has seen a significant increase. In 2024, China's integrated circuit production reached 451.42 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%. The latest data shows that from January to October 2025, China's cumulative integrated circuit production reached 386.6 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%. Based on this data, integrated circuit production increased after the cyclical bottoming out and stabilization of the electronics product market. The growth rate accelerated slightly in the latter part of the second quarter, but then peaked and declined in the third quarter, which is typically an off-season. In recent years, the rise of industries such as AI and robotics has led to continuously increasing demand for computing power, and the closely related semiconductor industry has also shown a booming development trend. With the cyclical recovery of the global semiconductor industry, it is expected that the production and sales of integrated circuits will continue to maintain rapid growth in the medium and long term.

The photovoltaic industry is transitioning from a period of rapid growth

In recent years, the ultra-rapid development of photovoltaic (PV) installations has led to overcapacity in the industry. With the decline in PV module prices, companies' profitability per watt has decreased significantly, impacting the long-term healthy development of the industry. However, by 2026, the industry is expected to undergo resource consolidation, and capacity growth will become more orderly. According to the European Photovoltaic Industry Association, global new PV installations will reach 665 GW in 2026. Wood Mackenzie predicts that, under the accelerated marketization of electricity trading in China, the growth rate of PV installations will slow down significantly between 2026 and 2034, with the average annual installation volume decreasing to 312 GW during this period. Assuming that 1 GW of PV installation consumes approximately 65 tons of tin, the estimated global demand for tin in new PV installations in 2026 will reach 43,000 tons, with China accounting for around 20,000 tons.

New energy vehicles continue to experience growth

According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), from January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 13.015 million and 12.943 million units respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.7% of total new vehicle sales.

Currently, due to the significant price difference between gasoline and electricity, new energy vehicles (NEVs) have a clear advantage in terms of operating costs. With the support of national energy structure adjustment policies, NEV sales continue to maintain a high growth rate. From a long-term perspective, the rapid development phase of NEVs will eventually end, and the growth rate of production and sales will slow down. However, the marginal increase they contribute will still be considerable and will surpass that of other consumption sectors. It is projected that the growth rate of NEV production and sales will be between 15% and 20% in 2026.

Tin inventories initially rose, then fell

In 2025, Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) tin inventories continued to increase until mid-April when destocking began. Inventories started accumulating again in early July, and then began to decrease again in August. Meanwhile, LME tin inventories continuously declined from the beginning of the year until mid-August when accumulation began. As of December 1st, SHFE tin inventories were 6,290 tons, and LME tin inventories were 3,145 tons, totaling 9,435 tons.

Regarding premiums and discounts, in 2024, LME tin prices generally remained at a discount. Entering 2025, the discount narrowed somewhat, and import opportunities also opened up intermittently.

Overall, tin prices are expected to show a volatile upward trend in 2025.  During this period, the alternating news of tin mine shutdowns due to civil unrest in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State will disrupt the market and act as important catalysts for price movements. Except for a brief period of impact from systemic risks after the Qingming Festival holiday, the upward price trend will be relatively smooth throughout the year. At the end of September, the Indonesian government's crackdown on illegal tin smuggling intensified market concerns about supply, leading to a further decline in refined tin exports. In addition to events at the mining end, the improved macroeconomic environment and the overall positive performance of the non-ferrous metals sector are also among the main drivers of rising tin prices.

Looking ahead to 2026, at the macro level, the global interest rate cutting cycle is expected to continue, and the cyclical uptrend in the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to manifest in a rotation across various metals, led by copper. The US-China trade friction persists, and significant uncertainties remain. In terms of fundamentals, a gradual easing of supply is highly probable, but downstream demand also presents bright spots, and the overall supply-demand balance is likely to remain tight. Uncertainties still exist; geopolitical risks and supply chain restructuring in the context of deglobalization may cause tin, as a critical metal resource, to continue to exhibit a structurally tight supply situation. Therefore, in 2026, tin prices are expected to remain relatively strong, with a likely trend of initial rise followed by a decline, but with an overall upward shift in the price level. The main trading range for Shanghai tin prices is expected to be between 250,000 and 350,000 RMB/ton, while the main trading range for London tin prices is expected to be between US$30,000 and US$48,000 per ton.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 24th, the benchmark price of tin according to SunSirs was 340,430.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 13.25% compared to the beginning of the month (300,610.00 RMB/ton).

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