SunSirs: China's Offshore Oil Production to Account for 80% of National Increase

The China Offshore Energy Development Report 2025, recently released by the Energy Economics Research Institute of CNOOC Group, indicates that China's offshore oil production will reach approximately 68 million tons by 2025. This represents an increase of about 2.5 million tons year-on-year, accounting for roughly 80% of the nation's total oil production growth.

By 2025, China will continue to intensify offshore exploration efforts, steadily strengthening the resource foundation for increasing offshore oil and gas reserves and production. By the end of the third quarter of this year, five new discoveries were made in China's maritime areas, 22 oil and gas structures were successfully evaluated, and 11 new projects commenced production. A major breakthrough was achieved in the submarine mountain area of the Beibu Gulf Basin, leading to the discovery of China's first deep-to-ultra-deep clastic-rock oil field with reserves exceeding 100 million tons—the Huizhou 19-6 oil field.

The report indicates that the global oil market will remain well-supplied in 2025, with international oil prices facing downward pressure. Influenced by factors such as slowing global economic growth momentum and accelerated new energy substitution, global liquid fuel consumption is projected to reach approximately 104 million barrels per day, an increase of about 1.1 million barrels per day year-on-year. Global oil supply is expected to reach 105 million barrels per day, growing by 2.6%. China's crude oil production will continue to increase, likely setting a new record high.

Meanwhile, the global natural gas market will achieve basic supply-demand balance by 2025. Amid multiple disruptive factors, natural gas prices will see significant increases. China's natural gas market will operate stably, though consumption growth will slow markedly. Offshore natural gas production will expand rapidly. In the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector, global new supply growth will accelerate significantly in 2025. By 2030, LNG is projected to account for over 60% of China's total natural gas imports.

Zhang Jianhua, former Director of the National Energy Administration, stated that building a new energy system should focus on three aspects: clean and efficient utilization of fossil energy, secure and reliable substitution of non-fossil energy, and innovation-driven development. Currently, China's offshore oil and gas exploration and development still have room for further improvement, with significant resource potential. Efforts to increase reserves and boost production must be sustained, continuing to serve as the main force driving China's oil production growth.

In 2025, capital expenditures on offshore oil and gas by major global oil companies continued to grow, positioning offshore oil and gas as a core growth driver for global supply. China's demand for offshore oil and gas engineering equipment increased, with its offshore oilfield service equipment leading globally in scale and technological sophistication. Equipment utilization rates exceeded the global average, with mobile drilling rig utilization rising to 94%.

Meanwhile, global offshore wind power continues its rapid expansion, with cumulative installed capacity projected to reach 94.15 gigawatts, marking a 13.6% year-on-year increase. China's new installations have resumed high-speed growth, with cumulative grid-connected capacity expected to hit approximately 48.77 gigawatts. New grid connections exhibit distinct regional concentration and batch commissioning characteristics, while floating offshore wind power accelerates breakthroughs.

Marine energy is rapidly ascending to a primary role in energy supply, establishing itself as a true strategic high ground. As a clean fossil fuel, natural gas serves as a vital bridge between traditional and new energy sources. Deepening the utilization of liquefied natural gas is an inevitable choice for advancing green transformation. Facing new circumstances and challenges, we must adhere to a systematic approach, simultaneously advancing traditional sectors like deepwater oil and gas exploration and emerging industries such as offshore wind power.

Projections indicate that global energy-related carbon emissions and primary energy consumption are expected to peak within the next five to ten years. Clean electricity is rapidly developing and gradually becoming the largest terminal energy source, yet fossil fuels remain indispensable as the “ballast” ensuring energy accessibility and system stability. The ocean is emerging as a new high ground for global energy supply, with projections indicating over 30% of oil, 37% of natural gas, and 7% of electricity will originate from marine sources. This will establish a three-dimensional marine energy supply system characterized by “offshore oil and gas production coupled with offshore green electricity generation.”

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