SunSirs: The Crude Oil Market Is Declining, and the Retail Price of China Refined Oil Products Has Been Lowered in this Round

The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on December 22, and the zero selling price of refined oil has been lowered again. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced seven upward adjustments, eleven downward adjustments, and six stranded adjustments. During this cycle, the crude oil market has declined, and the crude oil change rate has remained negative. The zero selling price adjustment of refined oil in 2025 has encountered the "twelfth" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 19th, the settlement price of the February WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $56.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the February Brent crude oil futures contract was $60.47 per barrel. During this round of price adjustment, the overall trend of crude oil prices has declined. At the beginning of this cycle, the regional situation has eased, and the geopolitical risk premium has subsided. In addition, the weakening of US demand and the impact of US tariffs on global economic and demand expectations have led to a decline in the international oil price market. Although the geopolitical tension in Venezuela has led to an increase in crude oil prices in the later stage, overall crude oil still shows a downward trend. As of the 22nd, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the tenth working day was -3.51%, corresponding to a reduction of 170 yuan per ton of gasoline and 165 yuan per ton of diesel in domestic oil prices, equivalent to a reduction of 89# 0.12 yuan, 92# 0.13 yuan, 95# 0.14 yuan, and 0# 0.14 yuan per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operation of Shandong refineries is relatively stable, with operating rates maintained. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries is around 52%. Recently, the main refineries in the country have seen an increase in load reduction, resulting in a decrease in operating rates, which has led to low resource inventory levels in some units. Recently, residents' travel and other activities have been normal, but with the decrease in temperature and the increase in the frequency of private car use, the demand for gasoline in the domestic market is still guaranteed. However, the continuous increase in the popularity of new energy vehicles has led to lower than expected demand performance, and the gasoline market has strong resistance to decline.

In terms of diesel: Recently, the supply side of the diesel market has been normal, and the demand side is still dominated by essential needs. The recent increase in low-temperature rain and snow weather in northern regions has hindered diesel infrastructure and logistics transportation. In addition, the use of diesel in agriculture has come to an end, and the demand for diesel has weakened compared to before. As a result, the diesel market continues to decline.

Looking at the future, the recent oversupply of crude oil is uncontrollable, and concerns about reduced supply due to geopolitical issues continue to support oil prices. However, there has been no improvement in demand for crude oil. Overall, international oil prices are expected to experience weak fluctuations in the short term, with limited cost support for the domestic refined oil market. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate is relatively stable, and the supply of refined oil is loose. In addition, the news is biased towards bearish or limiting market sentiment, and the impact of rainy and snowy weather is expanding. The expectation of diesel demand is suppressed, and the diesel market is weak and declining. There is still support for gasoline demand, and gasoline has strong resistance to decline.

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