SunSirs: Last Week, Copper Prices Initially Fell and Then Rose (December 15-19)

Price trend:

According to data monitored by SunSirs, copper prices fluctuated last week, initially falling before rising. As of the 19th, the price of copper was 92,496.67 RMB/ton, a 0.21% increase compared to the beginning of the week, a 25.28% increase compared to the beginning of the year, and a 25.1% increase year-on-year.

According to the weekly price fluctuation chart from SunSirs, copper prices have fallen for 4 weeks and risen for 7 weeks in the past three months, with a slight increase last week.

LME copper inventories

According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME), LME copper inventories fell slightly, reaching 164,275 tons at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the beginning of the week.

Macroeconomic factors: After the release of the US November employment data, market sentiment quickly turned optimistic. While 64,000 new jobs were added, exceeding expectations, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest level since September 2021. Market expectations of interest rate cuts in 2026 are driving up metal prices, as lower borrowing costs are expected to stimulate the economy and boost demand for metals.

Supply Side: Supply was facing pressure from shortages. The signal from the China Copper Raw Materials Joint Negotiation Group to reduce mining capacity by 10%, coupled with a significant increase in canceled warrants for copper inventory on the London Metal Exchange, indicates a tightening supply. A Deutsche Bank report points out that 2025 was a "severely disrupted year," with major copper producers lowering their production forecasts, and copper production expected to decrease by approximately 300,000 tons in 2026. Furthermore, copper hoarding in the United States was exacerbating the global copper supply shortage. The hoarding of copper inventory in the US due to arbitrage opportunities was gradually eroding the supply of copper in the international market, particularly making the inventory situation on the London Metal Exchange increasingly tight.

Demand side: The rapid rise in copper prices put immense cost pressure on downstream manufacturing industries. Air conditioning manufacturers were among the hardest hit, and some companies recently announced price increases. In addition, 19 air conditioning companies had jointly announced their participation in a self-regulatory agreement to promote the use of aluminum, hoping to mitigate cost pressures by substituting aluminum for copper.

Market Outlook

In summary: Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to rise from $10,650 per ton to $11,400 per ton in 2026; Citi was even more bullish, predicting that copper prices will break through $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and could even reach $15,000 per ton in the second quarter of next year. Eva Manthey, a commodity strategist at ING, stated that the copper market fundamentals remain tight, and she expects the average copper price in 2026 to be $11,500 per ton, potentially peaking near $12,000 in the second quarter. Market concerns about a large influx of copper into the US to preemptively address potential import tariffs could exacerbate copper shortages in other regions; however, a slowdown in global economic growth or escalating trade tensions could also suppress copper demand, leading to a price decline. In the short term, copper prices are expected to remain volatile but generally trending upwards.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.