SunSirs: Energy Industries Bulk Commodity Intelligence (December 18, 2025)

Macroeconomics

1. [Public Budget Revenue] According to data from the Ministry of Finance, from January to November, national general public budget revenue totaled 20,051.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. Of this, national tax revenue was 16,481.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%; non-tax revenue was 3,570.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%. Broken down by central and local government, central general public budget revenue was 8,846.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 1%; local general public budget revenue was 11,205.2 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%.

2. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Governor Waller stated that the job market indicates the Fed should continue to cut interest rates, and that the Fed's interest rate level is 50 to 100 basis points higher than the neutral rate. Waller does not believe that inflation will accelerate again.

3. [UK CPI] The UK's November CPI slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, the lowest level since March of this year; month-on-month, it decreased by 0.2%, the lowest level since July 2024. The UK's November retail price index decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, the largest decrease since July 2023.

4. [Japanese Exports] Data released by the Japanese Ministry of Finance showed that Japan's exports to the United States increased by 8.8% year-on-year in November, the first increase in eight months. Imports from the US increased by 7.1%, the fourth consecutive month of increase. Japan's exports to China decreased by 2.4% in November.

Energy

1. [Crude Oil] On December 17, international crude oil futures rebounded. The settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures February contract was $55.81 per barrel, an increase of $0.68 or 1.2%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures February contract was $59.68 per barrel, an increase of $0.76 or 1.3%.

2. [Crude Oil] On December 17, the inventory report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that US crude oil inventories decreased last week, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories increased. In the week ending December 12, US crude oil inventories decreased by 1.274 million barrels to 424.417 million barrels. Analysts expected a decrease of approximately 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 4.808 million barrels to 225.627 million barrels, exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of approximately 2.1 million barrels. Distillate fuel inventories, including diesel and heating oil, increased by 1.712 million barrels to 118.5 million barrels, also exceeding analysts' expectations of an increase of approximately 1.2 million barrels.

3. [Crude Oil] On December 17th local time, Venezuela's largest refinery, the Amuay refinery, restarted production after a power outage. The facility is a crucial part of the Paraguaná Refining Center owned by Venezuela's state-owned oil company (PDVSA), with a daily capacity of 645,000 barrels. Its operational stability is critical to Venezuela's domestic fuel supply and oil exports.

4. [LNG] The European Parliament voted to approve the EU's plan to gradually phase out imports of Russian natural gas by the end of 2027. This decision still requires formal approval from the EU member states' ministerial meeting early next year.

5. [LNG] Hungarian Foreign Affairs and Trade Minister Péter Szijjártó announced in Budapest on December 16th that the Hungarian power company and Chevron had signed a five-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) purchase agreement totaling 2 billion cubic meters.

6. [Coal] The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global coal demand will reach a record high of 8.85 billion tons in 2025; looking ahead, the IEA expects coal demand to decline by 3% by 2030, mainly due to fierce competition from renewable energy, nuclear power, and natural gas markets; IEA executives pointed out that global coal demand is peaking and will begin to decline in a very slow and gradual manner starting in 2030.

7. [Coal] The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for Key Areas of Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal (2025 Edition)". It mentions encouraging and guiding industry enterprises to implement transformation and upgrading projects based on their actual situation and long-term development. For new coal development and utilization projects and existing projects with suitable conditions, efforts should be made to improve the level of clean and efficient utilization as much as possible, striving to reach the benchmark level. For existing projects with clean and efficient utilization levels below the current benchmark, we will guide enterprises to orderly carry out clean and efficient coal utilization upgrades, accelerate the promotion of pollution reduction and carbon reduction by enterprises, and resolutely eliminate outdated production capacity and processes in accordance with laws and regulations.

8. [Coking Coal] On December 17th, Mongolian ER Company conducted an online auction for coking coal.  Mongolian #3 coking coal (A11, V20-28, S0.85, G75, Mt10) had a starting price of 800 RMB/ton. The listed quantity of 12,800 tons was all sold, with a transaction price of 825 RMB/ton, an increase of 5 RMB/ton compared to the previous auction on the 15th. All prices are exclusive of tax. The delivery location is the Ganqimaodu Port supervision area in China, and the delivery time is within 90 days after payment, with the final supply date being March 17, 2026.

9. [Petroleum Coke] On December 17th, Shandong Tianhong Chemical Co., Ltd.'s petroleum coke was priced at 2,400 RMB/ton, a decrease of 60 RMB/ton compared to the previous trading day. The sulfur content is around 3.2, and the company has a 1.8 million tons/year delayed coking unit, producing 1,000 tons of petroleum coke per day.

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