SunSirs: When Will the Rise in Cobalt Prices End?

Since November, cobalt prices have fluctuated and trended upwards

Since November, cobalt prices have fluctuated upwards. According to SunSirs' commodity cobalt market analysis system: on December 12th, the price of cobalt was 410,620 RMB/ton, a significant increase from the price of 339,300 RMB/ton on October 1st, representing a 21.02% increase; compared to the price of 385,700 RMB/ton on November 5th, the price fluctuated upwards, with an increase of 6.46%. After the Democratic Republic of Congo introduced an export quota system, the country also added temporary royalty requirements and complex procedures, adding further uncertainty to the already tight cobalt supply chain. The expected shortage of cobalt supply in the international market intensified, leading to a significant increase in cobalt prices.

The Democratic Republic of Congo introduced a quota system

In February 2025, the Democratic Republic of Congo's Strategic Minerals Market Regulatory and Control Authority announced a four-month suspension of cobalt exports to address the global oversupply in the cobalt market. In June, the export ban was extended for another three months. On September 21, the Congolese Strategic Minerals Market Regulatory and Control Authority announced that the country would end the cobalt export ban, which had been in effect since February, on October 15, and would implement an export quota system from October 16 until further notice. For the remainder of the year, Congolese mining companies will be allowed to export over 18,000 tons of cobalt, with a maximum annual export volume of 96,600 tons in 2026 and 2027. The Congolese government's implementation of the cobalt export quota system has significantly reduced the supply of cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo.

The Democratic Republic of Congo had introduced new regulations.

The Ministry of Mines and the Ministry of Finance of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) jointly announced on November 26th that cobalt exporters were required to prepay 10% of mining royalties and that export supervision measures would be strengthened. The new regulations included mandatory quota verification, joint sampling, batch weighing and sealing, and the issuance of quota verification certificates (AVQ) by the Strategic Minerals Market Regulatory Authority (ARECOMS). Cobalt exporters must prepay the 10% fee within 48 hours of submitting their origin and sales declarations and obtained a "release receipt" before customs clearance. All mineral shipments were subject to on-site inspections and multi-agency supervision. Due to unclear procedures and ambiguous payment requirements, no shipments had left port to date. The stagnation of cobalt exports from the DRC was exacerbating the risk of cobalt shortages and tightening supply in the cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to data analysts at SunSirs, the Democratic Republic of Congo's introduction of an export quota system had led to a shortage in the cobalt market. The new regulations in the DRC increased the cost of cobalt exports, and the unclear export procedures had further stalled cobalt exports from the country, exacerbating the supply shortage and driving up cobalt prices. Overall, the combination of supply shortages and rising costs suggests that cobalt prices still have room to rise in the future.

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