SunSirs: November 2025 China Cobalt Product Output Bulletin

I. Cobalt Salts: Month-on-Month Rebound, Clear Year-on-Year Decline Trend for Full Year

Statistical data indicates that domestic cobalt salt production (statistical scope: includes only cobalt sulfate and cobalt chloride) reached 8,047 tons in November 2025, marking a year-on-year decrease of 22.3% and a month-on-month increase of 4.8%. In terms of product structure, cobalt sulfate accounted for 53.6% of production, while cobalt chloride represented 46.4%, reflecting a pattern where cobalt sulfate holds a slight dominance. From January to November 2025, cumulative domestic cobalt salt production totaled approximately 93,000 tons, down 13.2% year-on-year, confirming a clear downward trend for annual output.

The core drivers behind the month-on-month rebound in cobalt salt production in November were twofold: First, at the raw material supply level, some smelting enterprises organized production through the reverse smelting process of metallic cobalt, effectively bridging the raw material supply gap and ensuring the fulfillment of downstream orders. Second, at the market demand level, downstream terminal demand showed signs of recovery, prompting smelting enterprises to proactively increase cobalt salt production.

II. Electrolytic Cobalt: Persistently Weak Output with Ongoing Downward Pressure

Domestic electrolytic cobalt output remained weak in November 2025, registering only 440 tons—a substantial 91.9% year-on-year decline and a 17.0% month-on-month decrease. Cumulatively, domestic electrolytic cobalt output from January to November reached approximately 34,000 tons, down 15.3% year-on-year. This cumulative decline was smaller than the monthly drop, reflecting a relatively high production base in earlier periods.

The core reasons for the sharp year-on-year decline in November's electrolytic cobalt output include: First, constraints on the raw material supply side led to a temporary shortage of production inputs domestically. Enterprises prioritized maintaining cobalt salt capacity based on their raw material security capabilities. Second, inventory pressures persist. Although some electrolytic cobalt stocks were absorbed through remelting, market inventories remain concentrated among producers and traders. Inventory destocking is incomplete, dampening companies' willingness to increase output.

Regarding raw material supply outlook, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government is currently initiating approvals for raw material export quotas and transportation procedures. Due to approval processes and cross-border transportation cycles, the delivery period for raw materials to China remains relatively long. Consequently, domestic raw material shortages for electrolytic cobalt production are expected to persist in the short term, likely maintaining a downward trend in output.

III. Lithium Cobalt Oxide: Strong Growth Momentum, Upside Potential Expected to Continue

China's lithium cobalt oxide production delivered impressive results in November 2025, reaching 11,700 tons—a substantial 53.3% year-on-year increase and a modest 1.7% month-on-month rise. This demonstrates a favorable trend of robust year-on-year growth coupled with steady month-on-month expansion. Cumulative data shows that from January to November, China's total lithium cobalt oxide production reached approximately 116,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 40.7%, indicating robust growth momentum for the full year.

Two core drivers underpin the sustained growth in lithium cobalt oxide production: First, price expectations have prompted order front-loading. Downstream enterprises, anticipating further cobalt price increases, proactively increased early-stage procurement and inventory stockpiling, thereby boosting order volumes for upstream lithium cobalt oxide manufacturers. Second, robust demand from core application markets, particularly the strong performance of the 3C consumer electronics sector, has driven increased demand for lithium cobalt oxide.

Overall, supported by multiple favorable factors, domestic lithium cobalt oxide production is expected to maintain its growth trajectory in December.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 15th, the benchmark price for cobalt, according to SunSirs, was 410,620.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.39% compared to the beginning of the month (405,000.00 RMB/ton).

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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