SunSirs : Analysis of China's Coking Coal Imports from January to October and Full-Year Outlook

Market data indicates that since the beginning of 2025, China's coking coal imports have exhibited a pattern of “low early on, high later” due to fluctuations in domestic production capacity, international geopolitical factors, and price differentials between domestic and international markets. The primary import structure remains dominated by Russian and Mongolian coal, while U.S. coal imports ceased entirely starting in May due to high tariffs imposed amid Sino-U.S. trade friction. For the full year, we project cumulative coking coal imports to reach approximately 113-115 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 6-9 million tons.

I. Coking Coal Imports and Year-on-Year Changes from January to October

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, China's cumulative coking coal imports from January to October 2025 reached 94.12 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%. This decline narrowed significantly compared to the 8% drop recorded in the first half of the year. The divergence in import patterns was particularly pronounced: domestic production increased while imports decreased in the first half. With coal mine output remaining high, the industry's strategy of “compensating for price declines with volume” drove prices steadily lower. Our calculations indicate that China's domestic coking coal output in the first half of 2025 reached approximately 231 million tons, a 1.62% year-on-year increase, while net coking coal imports amounted to about 52.14 million tons, a 6.79% year-on-year decrease. Entering the third quarter, domestic coal supply contracted under policies targeting overproduction and enhanced safety inspections. The rebound in domestic coking coal prices restored import profitability, widening the price differential between domestic and international markets. This created favorable export conditions for Outer Mongolia and seaborne coal. In September, total coking coal imports hit a new monthly record of 10.9237 million tons. Although October saw a slight month-on-month decline of 3.02%, imports remained at a high level of 10.5932 million tons.

II. Changes in Import Structure

In terms of trade composition, the dominance of Mongolian coal and Russian coal remains unchanged, with the import source structure further concentrating on the top two importing countries.

Mongolia: Cumulative coking coal exports to China from January to October reached 47.11 million tons, a slight 0.5% year-on-year decrease, accounting for 50% of total imports. After the third quarter, the price differential between China and Mongolia widened, creating a shortage of high-quality main coking coal domestically. This prompted numerous traders and spot-futures arbitrageurs to shift toward Mongolian imports. In September, the average daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port reached 1,245 railcars, a 45.48% year-on-year increase. In November, following Mongolia's political stabilization, Prime Minister Zandanshatar proposed during his Moscow meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang to increase coal exports to China to 100 million tons. Year-end import volume surges continued, but winter snowfall transport constraints and pessimistic price expectations are expected to limit monthly imports in November and December below August's peak of 6 million tons. Annual Mongolian coal imports are projected to reach approximately 58-59 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 2-3 million tons.

Russia: As the second-largest supplier, Russia maintained steady performance. Imports from January to October reached 26.48 million tons, up 4.29% year-on-year, accounting for 28% of total coking coal imports. Its cost-effective fat coal resources, supplied stably through long-term contracts, remain an indispensable backbone coal type for imports. On November 26, Russia indicated it may increase annual coal and coal-processed product exports to China to over 100 million tons.

According to China Customs data, from January to October, China imported a total of 73.133 million tons of Russian coal, down 8.2% year-on-year. Among these, coking coal imports reached 26.4228 million tons, up 4.29% year-on-year (the main decline in imports was in thermal coal). Considering timing and pricing, monthly long-term contract volumes for Russian coking coal remain relatively stable. With current domestic demand weak and limited coal blending shortages, imports are expected to stabilize around 2.7-3.0 million tons per month by year-end. Annual imports of Russian coking coal are projected to reach approximately 31-32 million tons, significantly higher than the 30.21 million tons recorded in 2024.

Additionally, following the imposition of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US starting February 2025, import tariffs on US coking coal surged from 3% in 2024 to 28% in May 2025. US coking coal imports have essentially stalled since May, with cumulative imports from January to October totaling only 2.9 million tons—a sharp 65.7% year-on-year decline. Imports of Canadian coal continued their month-on-month recovery in the second half of the year, though total volumes remained below the high levels seen in the first half. From January to October, imports grew by 28.31% year-on-year, with some high-quality main coking coal replacing the share previously held by U.S. coal. Australian coal imports remained volatile. Although imports in October still declined year-on-year, they surged 82.13% month-on-month after the import profit window opened. By late November, domestic coal prices caught up with declines, narrowing profit margins for Australian coal. December imports are expected to see limited month-on-month growth. We project annual seaborne coal imports to range between 22 million and 25 million tons.

In summary, the coking coal import market in 2025 achieved structural optimization amid fluctuations, further consolidating a pattern dominated by Mongolia and Russia with diversified supplementary sources. The increase in imports will be concentrated in the second half of the year, with the share of Mongolian and Russian coal rising from 71% in 2024 to 78%.

Looking ahead to 2026, as domestic coal production capacity undergoes further regulation and control, China's raw coal output is nearing its peak. Subsequent growth will gradually shift from domestic sources to overseas imports, with growth potential still anticipated.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 15th, the benchmark price of coking coal according to SunSirs was 1461.25 RMB/ton, a decrease of 6.26% compared to the beginning of the month (1558.75 RMB/ton).

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