SunSirs: Titanium Dioxide Industry Remains Bearish in the Short Term

According to China Chemical News, over the past four years, the global titanium dioxide industry has been mired in a supply-demand imbalance, with production capacity utilization rates plummeting and prices persistently weak, severely impacting the profitability of Western producers. S&P Global Energy forecasts indicate that the short-term outlook for the titanium dioxide industry remains bleak. From 2024 to 2029, global titanium dioxide demand is projected to increase by 860,000 metric tons, while new capacity additions will reach 1.8 million metric tons. This widening supply-demand gap is expected to push industry operating rates below 70%, posing severe survival challenges for producers.

As an indispensable core raw material for industries such as coatings, papermaking, and plastics, the market health of titanium dioxide is highly correlated with downstream manufacturing sectors. Data from S&P Global Energy's Chemical Economics Handbook: Titanium Dioxide indicates the industry maintained a healthy trajectory in 2021: Global titanium dioxide demand reached 7.6 million tons that year, a net increase of 740,000 tons compared to 2017, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.6%. Meanwhile, global production capacity increased by only 310,000 tons during the same period. Under tight supply-demand balance, the industry's operating rate climbed to nearly 90%. However, 2021 marked a turning point for the industry's prosperity, after which the market faced severe pressure. From 2021 to 2024, global demand growth slowed significantly to an average annual rate of 0.8%, with a net increase of only 180,000 metric tons over four years, reaching approximately 7.7 million metric tons in 2024. Yet, global new capacity additions during this period reached 790,000 metric tons—more than four times the demand growth. This supply-demand imbalance caused the industry's operating rate to plummet to 75%.

S&P Global Energy forecasts that the short-term outlook for the titanium dioxide industry remains bleak. From 2024 to 2029, global titanium dioxide demand is expected to rebound to an average annual growth rate of 2.1%, adding 860,000 metric tons during this period. However, global titanium dioxide capacity is projected to increase by 1.8 million metric tons over the same period, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. The global industry operating rate is anticipated to fall below 70%.

Titanium dioxide producers face severe survival challenges. Financial reports from leading US and European companies reveal significantly diminished profitability over the past four years: Titan's operating profit margin slid from 16% to 7%, reaching just 1% in the first three quarters of 2025; Chemours' adjusted EBITDA margin for its Titanium Technologies division halved from 24% to 12%, standing at only 7% for the first nine months of 2025.

Geopolitical uncertainties further exacerbated industry challenges. In its Q3 2025 earnings report, ConocoPhillips noted that customers broadly reduced inventory buildup due to geopolitical uncertainties, prolonging the market downturn and directly impacting industry sales volumes and pricing structures. Company data shows that while sales growth in its core European and North American markets offset export declines in the first three quarters of 2025, pricing pressure remained significant: although prices at the beginning of the year were 2% higher than the same period in 2024, cumulative declines reached 6% over the first three quarters, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 2%.

Facing industry challenges, global titanium dioxide producers are pinning hopes for a turnaround on capacity optimization and trade policy adjustments to restore supply-demand equilibrium. Conoco explicitly stated that 2025 marked the start of large-scale capacity reduction, with plants in China and Europe shutting down sequentially. Combined with anti-dumping duties implemented in multiple countries, product pricing is expected to rebound in 2026.

Tronox and Chemours share similar assessments. Tronox CEO John Romano noted that while demand fell short of expectations in Q3 2025 due to destocking, a recovery is anticipated in Q4—a particularly valuable sign during the seasonal slowdown, signaling positive momentum.

Anti-dumping duties have become the core countermeasure pinned with high hopes by US and European companies. Romano revealed that since the US imposed Section 301 tariffs in 2018, China's annual titanium dioxide exports to the US have consistently remained below 20,000 tons. Anti-dumping duties already implemented by the EU, Brazil, and India have also significantly curbed imports of Chinese titanium dioxide, with countries like Saudi Arabia potentially following suit with similar measures.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on December 9th, the benchmark price of titanium dioxide from SunSirs was 13,700.00RMB/ton, an increase of 1.48% compared to the beginning of the month (13,500.00 RMB/ton).

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