SunSirs: Lithium Carbonate Futures Approach 100,000 Yuan Mark; Lithium Battery Sector Sees Wave of Limit-Up Stocks; Import Landscape Shifts

According to China Energy Network, on November 18, 2025, the lithium carbonate market maintained its strong momentum. The main futures contract surged to 96,920 yuan per ton during early trading, nearing the RMB 100,000 threshold. Since November, the contract has accumulated nearly a 17% gain. On the 17th, it hit a new annual high with a 9% limit-up price, triggering a comprehensive price surge across the lithium battery supply chain.

The core logic behind this price surge lies in supply-demand imbalances and sustained inventory drawdowns. Supply growth remains limited, with China's lithium carbonate output growth slowing to around 1.4% in November. Although Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China surged 46% month-on-month to 16,200 tons in October, overall supply struggles to match demand growth. Demand, however, has surged explosively. The energy storage market has officially overtaken power batteries as the largest consumption scenario. Global lithium battery energy storage installations are projected to exceed 170GWh in 2025, representing a 68% year-on-year increase. Total demand for energy storage cells is expected to double to 1,200GWh by 2026. Combined with a 10.7% month-on-month increase in power battery installations, China's domestic lithium carbonate consumption surged to 135,000 metric tons in November, marking a year-on-year growth exceeding 40%. Amid this supply-demand gap, social lithium carbonate inventories have declined for 13 consecutive weeks, cumulatively decreasing by 22,000 metric tons. Inventory turnover days have fallen to a record low of 28.1 days since futures trading began, providing robust support for price increases.

Spot markets followed suit, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices rising to a range of ¥89,800–¥90,900 per ton on November 17—a ¥3,600 increase from the previous trading day and a 15.76% surge since the beginning of the month. Driven by lithium salt prices, overseas lithium concentrate prices also rose. Australian lithium concentrate reached $1,080 per ton, while Brazilian and Zimbabwean concentrate prices both surpassed $1,000 per ton. Overseas mines significantly increased their shipment enthusiasm, and domestic lithium salt plants showed strong purchasing demand.

The import landscape showed new diversification. From January to September 2025, China imported a cumulative 5.5764 million tons of spodumene, with Australia remaining the largest source country at 2.792 million tons (50.1%). However, September data revealed a 93.0% month-on-month surge in imports from South Africa and a 14.4% increase from Nigeria, indicating substantial growth from emerging suppliers that disrupted traditional import patterns. Currently, China's lithium ore demand remains primarily reliant on supplies from Australia, Nigeria, and Zimbabwe.

Regarding future trends, the market maintains strong long-term bullish sentiment. Li Liangbin, Chairman of Ganfeng Lithium, forecasts that by 2026, lithium carbonate demand will grow by 30% to 1.9 million tons, while supply will increase by only about 250,000 tons, resulting in a fundamentally balanced supply-demand situation. If demand growth reaches 40%, prices could potentially exceed RMB 150,000 per ton or even RMB 200,000 per ton. In the short term, rising overseas energy prices are boosting expectations for energy storage demand. Domestic energy storage cell manufacturers are operating at full capacity, and with no significant slowdown in end-user demand, lithium carbonate prices are expected to remain firm.

However, industry insiders also caution about risks, warning of potential price corrections triggered by cooling market sentiment and profit-taking by bullish investors. In the medium to long term, the anticipated resumption of production at domestic lithium mines like Jianshawo and the release of new overseas capacity may exert downward pressure on prices. Future price movements will increasingly depend on the actual development of demand.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 19, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (industrial grade) on SunSirs was 88,433.33RMB/ton, an increase of 12.75% compared with the beginning of the month (78,433.33 RMB /ton).

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