SunSirs: Polysilicon Prices See Sharp Swings as New Energy Firms Step Up Hedging to Stabilize Profits

According to Securities Times, recent fluctuations in raw material prices—particularly polysilicon in the upstream new energy sector—have intensified.

Data indicates that as a critical upstream raw material in the photovoltaic industry chain, polysilicon price volatility directly impacts the sector's cost structure and profitability. This year's dramatic price swings have become a key driver prompting companies to embrace futures markets more aggressively.

In the first half of 2025, spot polysilicon prices plummeted from 56,000 RMB per ton at the beginning of the year to 34,400 RMB per ton by the end of June, a 38.6% decline. Affected by this, some small and medium-sized enterprises even sold below cash costs, plunging the entire industry into six consecutive quarters of losses.

Subsequently, “anti-internal competition” policies spurred a rapid rebound in polysilicon and lithium carbonate prices. Specifically, polysilicon spot prices climbed from a low of ¥34,400/ton at the end of June to ¥47,100/ton by late July, surging 36.9% within a month. On the futures front, the weighted average contract for polysilicon reached ¥57,945/ton on September 5—a record high since its listing—marking a staggering 91% increase between June 25 and September 5. Subsequently, the polysilicon market entered a volatile phase.

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The interplay between expectations of “anti-involution” policies and fundamental realities has driven short-term price volatility. The polysilicon market is expected to maintain a wide-range, high-level fluctuation in the near term.

Notably, under the “anti-involution” policy expectations, benefits across the supply chain are unevenly distributed. From a supply chain perspective, price increases typically originate with polysilicon before gradually propagating to downstream segments like wafers, cells, and modules. However, mid-to-downstream cell and module manufacturers currently remain in widespread losses.

Projections from the Silicon Industry Branch of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association indicate that domestic polysilicon output in Q4 this year will reach approximately 382,000 tons, a slight 3% year-on-year increase. By 2025, annual domestic production is forecast to drop significantly to around 1.34 million tons—a 27.3% year-on-year decrease. This reduction is expected to result in a slight surplus relative to demand, with annual inventory accumulation projected at roughly 20,000 tons.

As a crucial measure against internal competition, the progress of polysilicon stockpiling in the photovoltaic industry has become a focal point of market attention. In recent years, rapid expansion of polysilicon capacity has disrupted market supply-demand balance. The “stockpiling platform” aims to address this imbalance through industry-wide collaboration by consolidating polysilicon capacity or inventory, ultimately stabilizing prices. Potential stockpiling requires nearly 100 billion RMB in funding, and several obstacles remain to be overcome under proposed plans.

From an industry perspective, electronics, basic chemicals, power equipment, machinery, and automotive sectors have the highest number of hedging companies. Participation rates exceed 40% in nonferrous metals, home appliances, basic chemicals, power equipment, light industrial manufacturing, and beauty care. Notably, hedging participation in nonferrous metals and home appliances surpasses 50%, reaching 58.9% and 56.9% respectively.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 19, the benchmark price of polysilicon on SunSirs was 52,000.00 RMB/ton, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

Application of SunSirs Benchmark Pricing：

Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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