SunSirs: Methanol Market Prices Weakly Declined

Price trend:

According to the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, from November 10th to 14th (as of 15:00), the domestic methanol market price at East China ports fell from 2,058 RMB/ton to around 2,034 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.17% during the period, a decrease of 10.16% month-on-month, and a decrease of 17.82% year-on-year. With high import supply, port methanol inventories continued to accumulate, exerting sustained downward pressure on the market, which remained in a low-level, fluctuating manner.

As of the close of trading on November 14, methanol futures prices on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell. The most active methanol futures contract, 2601, opened at 2,103 RMB/ton, reached a high of 2,107 RMB/ton, a low of 2,054 RMB/ton, and closed at 2,055 RMB/ton, down 52 RMB/ton or 2.47% from the previous trading day's settlement price. Trading volume was 1,169,485 contracts, open interest was 1,516,796 contracts, an increase of 133,965 contracts for the day.

Market Analysis

On the cost side, domestic coal production continued to contract, and heating demand was being released ahead of schedule, suggesting that coal prices were likely to remain firm, providing strong cost support. Methanol was also benefiting from favorable cost factors.

On the demand side, external olefin procurement provided support, but weak end-user demand had not fundamentally improved, limiting the potential for increased demand. Most downstream products were affected by methanol prices, and methanol demand provided bearish impact for the market .

On the supply side, the Inner Mongolia and Baitai plants were undergoing maintenance; the Inner Mongolia Donghua, Zhongyuan Dahua, Xinxiang Zhongxin, Xindongheng, Ningxia Hening, Jiangsu Suopu, Inner Mongolia Hebaitai, and Hubei Sanning plants had resumed operations.The statistics showed a decrease in planned maintenance and production cuts at methanol plants, while the number of plants resuming operations had increased, thus the overall market supply may increase. The methanol supply provided bearish factors for the market .

On the international market, as of the close of trading on November 13, the CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $321.5-322.5 per tonne. The FOB US Gulf Coast methanol market closed at 89.5-90.5 cents per gallon; and the European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at €265.5-266.5 per tonne.

Market Forecast:

Market supply pressure was significant, and port inventories continued to accumulate. Although demand had slightly recovered, the overall oversupply situation intensified, and the market was operating weakly. According to analysts at SunSirs, the domestic methanol spot market will remain weaker.

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