SunSirs: Sulfur Prices Surge by RMB 600 per Ton Recently

According to China Chemical News, sulfur prices surged by over RMB600 per ton in October. Such a massive short-term increase has made sulfur a focal point in the fertilizer industry. The primary driver behind this price spike appears to be disruptions in the sulfur supply chain.

Public records indicate that on October 31, Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) Chief Oleksandr Malyuk stated Ukraine has successfully targeted 160 Russian oil and energy facilities this year, marking a 48% increase in attacks compared to 2024. Malyuk affirmed these operations will continue to undermine Russia's ability to fund its military campaign in Ukraine.

Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have severely impacted Russia's energy sector: First, refineries have sustained significant damage. Since 2025, at least 21 of Russia's 38 largest refineries have been targeted by drone strikes, with attacks intensifying particularly between August and September. Ukrainian data indicates these attacks have reduced Russia's refining capacity by nearly 40% and caused a 20% fuel shortage. Second, fuel prices have skyrocketed. Gasoline and diesel prices have risen by 50% compared to the beginning of the year. Some gas stations have closed or experienced long queues due to shortages of refined oil products. In Crimea, the fuel demand gap once reached 56%.

It is reported that Russia's annual sulfur production exceeds 7 million tons. With its refining capacity so severely impacted, Russia has lost a massive supply of sulfur. Since September this year, Russia has shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer of sulfur.

The global sulfur market was already operating under tight supply-demand balance. Now that Russia has transitioned from exporter to importer, how could international sulfur prices not surge?

Although international attention to the Ukraine crisis is waning, its impact on global supply chains persists, now evident in sulfur. As long as the crisis continues, Ukraine will persist in targeting Russia's energy infrastructure, further exacerbating global sulfur shortages. Even if Russia's sulfur production recovers in the future, it will be difficult to reverse the medium-to-long-term tightening trend in sulfur supply.

The energy transition is reducing demand for fossil fuels, thereby decreasing by-product sulfur supply. Simultaneously, sulfur demand is experiencing explosive growth: global sales of new energy vehicles are surging, while accelerating global energy transformation is fueling robust demand for energy storage batteries both domestically and internationally. Domestic energy storage battery manufacturers are ramping up production, driving strong demand for lithium iron phosphate. Sulfur is a key raw material in the production of wet-process phosphoric acid.

Recognizing the inevitability of the energy transition, sulfur faces a trajectory of diminishing supply and rising demand, increasingly positioning it as a scarce resource. Given current global supply-demand dynamics, the tight sulfur market is unlikely to ease in the near term.

The sharp rise in sulfur prices has imposed significant cost pressures on phosphate fertilizer enterprises. Without raising product prices, production halts become inevitable; yet increasing prices risks exceeding farmers' affordability. Ensuring stable phosphate fertilizer supply and prices now faces unprecedented challenges, demanding high-level attention from all stakeholders.

As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices, on November 13, the benchmark price of sulfur from SunSirs was 3,581.00 RMB/ton, an increase of 9.03% compared with the beginning of the month (3,284.33 RMB /ton).

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Traders can price spot and contract transactions based on the pricing principle of agreed markup and pricing formula (Transaction price=SunSirs price + Markup).

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