SunSirs: Caustic Soda Prices Rose Initially and Then Fell in October

Price trend

According to data monitored by SunSirs, caustic soda prices rose initially in October, then fell, and finally consolidated at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of caustic soda in Shandong was 832 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 838 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.72%, and a decrease of 19.19% compared to the same period last year.

On October 30th, the SunSirs Chemical Index was 755 points, unchanged from the previous day, down 46.07% from the highest point of 1,400 points (October 23, 2021) within the cycle, and up 26.25% from the lowest point of 598 points (April 8, 2020). (Note: The cycle refers to December 1, 2011 to present.)

Analysis review

According to data from SunSirs, caustic soda prices rose initially in October before falling, ultimately consolidating at the end of the month. In Shandong, the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda was around 750-880 RMB/ton. In Jiangsu, prices remained stable at around 890-1000 RMB/ton. In Inner Mongolia, prices consolidated, with the mainstream market price for 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda around 2700-2800 RMB/ton (converted to 100% basis). The price increase in the first ten days of October was mainly due to relatively low supply and demand pressure in Shandong and anticipated maintenance shutdowns at some companies. In late October, supply increased in Shandong, but the fundamentals remained unchanged, leading to a weakening and consolidation in prices. Downstream alumina prices recently declined, leading to pessimism among distributors and significant operational pressure for some companies, resulting in more on-demand caustic soda purchases.

Market outlook

According to analysts at SunSirs, caustic soda prices were trending weakly recently. Domestic downstream buyers were mostly purchasing on an as-needed basis, resulting in ample supply from caustic soda producers. Considering the supply and demand dynamics, caustic soda prices are expected to continue to be consolidated in the near future, depending on downstream market demand.

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