SunSirs: Supply and Demand for the Five Major Steel Products Were Both Strong, and Inventories Decreased Somewhat (October 27-31)

Price trend:

Last week, hot rolled sheet and coil prices rose initially before falling. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of October 31, the average price of domestic hot rolled sheet and coil was 3,356 RMB/ton, up 0.479% week-on-week; the average price of domestic cold rolled sheet was 4,030 RMB/ton, up 2.49% week-on-week.

Factors influencing price changes:

Fundamentals

According to the latest data obtained by SunSirs, last week's social inventory of hot rolled steel was 341.34 tons, an increase of 120,400 tons week-on-week, and the weekly output was 3,218,400 tons, a decrease of 14,500 tons week-on-week; last week's social inventory of cold rolled steel was 1,420,000 tons, a decrease of 15,300 tons week-on-week, and the weekly output was 874,100 tons, a decrease of 6,600 tons week-on-week.

Last week, the inventory of steel billets in Tangshan's main warehouses and ports was 1.2592 million tons, a decrease of 82,100 tons week-on-week.

Last week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.7529 million tons, up 1.2% week-on-week, with rebar production showing a more significant increase; total inventory was 15.1374 million tons, down 2.6% week-on-week; weekly consumption was 9.1642 million tons, with building material consumption up 5.1% week-on-week and plate consumption up 1.3% week-on-week.

Cost side

On the supply side, the supply of the five major steel products last week was 8.7529 million tons, an increase of 99,700 tons week-on-week, representing a growth of 1.2%. Steel production increased this period, mainly concentrated in rebar production, which saw a significant rise. The total inventory of the five major steel products last week was 15.1374 million tons, a decrease of 411,300 tons week-on-week, a drop of 2.6%. The total inventory of the five major products decreased last week, with both construction materials and plate inventories showing a destocking trend. Construction materials inventory decreased by 288,700 tons, and plate inventory decreased by 455,300 tons. On the consumption side, the weekly consumption of the five major products last week was 9.1642 million tons, with construction material consumption increasing by 5.1% week-on-week and plate consumption increasing by 1.3% week-on-week. The consumption structure of construction materials and plate products remained consistent among the five major products last week.

In September 2025, China's steel exports reached 10.47 million tons, a 10.1% increase month-on-month and a 3.6% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative exports reached 87.96 million tons, a 9.2% increase year-on-year. From January to September, cumulative imports reached 4.53 million tons, a 12.6% decrease year-on-year. In September 2025, China's steel exports continued their year-on-year growth trend, breaking the 10 million ton mark again after three months. According to the latest customs data, China's galvanized sheet exports did indeed maintain strong growth momentum in September 2025. At the same time, the "export by purchasing" ban imposed by five ministries, which officially came into effect this year, has also brought uncertainty to the future export situation.

Market outlook

The traditional peak season for demand was drawing to a close, and apparent demand for rebar and hot rolled coil may have peaked. As demand weakens seasonally, steel inventory pressure may further accumulate. Regarding rebar, steel mill output was at an absolute low as of October 31, with little incentive for further production cuts; short-term output changes are expected to be minimal. On the consumption side, last week's consumption had essentially confirmed the peak for the fourth quarter; considering the seasonal nature of demand, consumption is expected to gradually decline later. For hot rolled coil, output is expected to remain at current levels next week, with a slight accumulation of mill inventory, and apparent demand also peaking and declining. With macroeconomic disruptions gradually subsiding, the future price drivers for ferrous metals may shift back to weak fundamentals.

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