SunSirs: China LNG Has Risen by Over 20% in Half a Month, and the Price Fluctuated

Price trend: Jumping more than 20% in half a month, reaching a new milestone

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, from October 1 to October 27, 2025, the ex factory price of LNG (LNG) in Inner Mongolia showed a violent fluctuation of "first suppression and then rise", with a cumulative increase of over 20% in half a month, setting a record for the largest single month increase of the year. Starting from 3,854 RMB/ton on October 1, it experienced a brief correction (the lowest fell to 3,662 RMB/ton on October 17, a decrease of 4.9%), and started a rapid upward trend from October 19. By October 27, it had exceeded 4,432 RMB/ton, rebounded more than 20% from the low point of the stage, and the market showed a "V-shaped" reversal trend.

Multiple factors drive the switching of supply and demand patterns

Explosive demand side: Heating season approaching, coupled with industrial replenishment

Entering late October, temperatures in northern regions are accelerating their decline, and Inner Mongolia and surrounding provinces are starting preparations for winter heating. The demand for urban gas is increasing significantly month on month. At the same time, the concentrated release of delayed replenishment demand in industries such as chemical and ceramics during low prices in the early stages has driven a surge in LNG procurement volume. After October 20th, the daily average shipment volume of major LNG receiving stations in Inner Mongolia increased by about 15% compared to mid month, and some factories even experienced queuing for delivery.

Supply side contraction: dual constraints of resource scarcity and transportation restrictions

The contraction of the supply side has become the core driving force behind this price increase. On the one hand, some domestic LNG liquefaction plants maintain a low capacity utilization rate of 60% -70% due to equipment maintenance or insufficient supply of raw gas; On the other hand, in mid to late October, there were widespread rainy and snowy weather in Inner Mongolia and surrounding areas, which hindered road transportation and led to a decrease in the efficiency of resource circulation in the region, resulting in a temporary "supply shortage" in some markets. In addition, international LNG spot prices have stabilized and rebounded since mid October, easing the pressure of inverted import costs and indirectly supporting domestic market confidence.

Short term high volatility, long-term need to pay attention to pullback risk

For the subsequent trend, as November officially enters the heating season, there is still support on the demand side, and prices may remain high; But the current price has partially exceeded the expected winter demand. If the temperature rises later or the amount of imported LNG arriving at the port increases, the market may face downward pressure; Combined with the concentrated arrival of imported cargo at the port to offset the reduction in domestic supply, high priced transactions are hindered, and short-term domestic LNG prices are expected to be under pressure and decline.

SunSirs analysts predict that LNG prices in Inner Mongolia may fluctuate within the range of 4,500-4,800 RMB/ton in early November, with a low possibility of breaking through 5,000 RMB/ton in the short term. In the medium to long term, it is necessary to focus on the recovery of domestic liquefaction plant operating rates, international gas price trends, and winter temperature changes. If the supply side bottleneck gradually eases, the risk of price correction cannot be ignored.

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