SunSirs: Warehouse Receipt Cancellations, Emotional Disturbances, Lithium Carbonate Prices Rebounded

Price trend

According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, lithium carbonate has recently rebounded after a volatile market. On October 21, the SunSirs benchmark price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 75,016 RMB/ton, up 2.74% from the same period last week (October 14), up 2.93% from the previous month, and down 7.84% from the previous year. The SunSirs benchmark price for industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 73,166 RMB/ton, up 2.81% from the same period last week (October 14), up 2.69% from the previous month, and down 7.15% from the previous year.

Futures market sentiment boosted

Last week (October 13-17), lithium carbonate futures warehouse receipts decreased from 42,669 lots to 30,686 lots, with a reduction of 12,000 tons of lithium carbonate. This reflected strong spot market demand and insufficient downstream inventory.

Demand explosion: New energy and energy storage dual-wheel drove

Demand for new energy vehicles exceeded expectations: Data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) shows that wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide reached 1.5 million units in September, a 22% year-on-year increase and a record monthly sales high. This robust demand has directly impacted the upstream supply chain. Leading battery manufacturers such as CATL and BYD have seen order delivery cycles extended to 45 days, with production scheduling rates remaining above 95% in September. Cathode material manufacturers also saw a continued month-on-month increase in output, forcing a concentrated release of lithium carbonate procurement demand.

Energy storage demand was booming: October production data from domestic battery companies shows that total production of power, energy storage, and consumer batteries reached 186GWh, a 22.4% month-over-month increase. Energy storage cells accounted for 40.3% of this total, with leading companies operating at full capacity. At the domestic policy level, the "Special Action Plan for Large-Scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)" specifies over 100 million kilowatts of new installed capacity over the next three years, further opening up potential for lithium resource consumption.

Continuous destocking consolidated the price foundation

As of early October, the total domestic lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,023 tons month-on-month to 134,802 tons. The continued destocking trend provided solid support for spot prices.

Analysts of lithium carbonate data from SunSirs believe that lithium carbonate was temporarily experiencing short-term strong fluctuations under a tight balance, but the total inventory of 130,000 tons still suppressed the increase, making it difficult to quickly break through the previous high. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate, and specific market changes still need to be monitored.

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