SunSirs: Lithium Carbonate Price Volatility Expected to Narrow Amid Inventory Restructuring
October 22 2025 09:29:40     SunSirs from China Non-Ferrous Metals News (lkhu)Lithium carbonate futures and options have been operating smoothly since their listing, providing effective risk management tools for the lithium battery new energy industry to manage price fluctuation risks and achieve high-quality development.
From the historical trend, in the past two years, lithium carbonate has been in a period of oversupply, and the price center has significantly declined, from more than 200,000 RMB/ton in the early stage of listing to the 100,000 RMB/ton level. In 2025, the lithium carbonate price showed a trend of first falling and then rising: in the first half of the year, affected by tariffs and the pressure of oversupply, the futures price fell from about 80,000 RMB/ton to below 60,000 RMB/ton, and then quickly rebounded under the drive of unexpected lithium salt demand and uncertainties in the supply side, and the price center in the third quarter was lifted.
Demand performance is impressive
Generally speaking, the demand for lithium carbonate is low around the Spring Festival, and the third and fourth quarters are the peak seasons for demand. However, under the pressure of oversupply, the futures price of lithium carbonate has not shown significant seasonal characteristics. The prices of the lithium battery industry chain have shown a trend of stabilizing and recovering overall, among which, the increase in lithium concentrate in the raw material link is the largest, exceeding 30%. However, the price changes of terminal products such as power and energy storage battery cells are limited, with the increase within 5%.
Industry data show that the domestic production of lithium carbonate in July, August and September was 81,530 tons, 85,240 tons and 87,260 tons, respectively, setting new monthly highs. In the third quarter, the profit from lithium carbonate production fluctuated and then declined. Specifically, in July, the profit from processing lithium from purchased ore fluctuated and recovered; in August, the profit surged and then declined; in September, the loss of lithium carbonate companies from purchasing ore stabilized. From January to August, China's lithium carbonate import volume was 153,500 tons, with significant fluctuations in monthly imports. Considering that the production of lithium from South American salt lakes will significantly increase this year, the import volume of lithium carbonate is expected to continue the growth trend in the fourth quarter.
On the demand side, the first three quarters saw a coordinated effort from power and energy storage batteries, which performed exceptionally well. From January to August, the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries is expected to be 2.1782 million tons, an increase of 912,000 tons year-on-year, a rise of 72%, significantly exceeding the market's initial expectations for the production of positive electrode materials.
Inventory structure transformation
As of the end of September, the total inventory of lithium carbonate samples was 136,825 tons, a decrease of 7,06 tons compared to the previous month, marking the seventh consecutive week of decline. From a structural perspective, the inventory of lithium salt enterprises continues to shift downstream, with intermediate inventory being partially consumed, while downstream inventory continues to reach new highs. In the later period, the inventory of lithium salt enterprises may accumulate again.
From the seasonal supply and demand analysis, in the fourth quarter, the demand for lithium carbonate in the lithium battery industry is highly likely to show a process of rising and then falling.
According to the data from the China Automobile Sales Association, from September 1st to 27th, the national new energy vehicle market sold 1.039 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9% and a month-on-month increase of 17%; the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles reached 58.5%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative retail volume has reached 8.609 million units, a year-on-year increase of 24%. With the penetration rate of new energy vehicles stable at more than 50%, the necessity of demand-side related support policies has declined. The market has already expected this, so the terminal demand in the fourth quarter may be released before it falls.
According to the regulations of the three departments including the Ministry of Finance, new energy vehicles purchased between 2024 and 2025 will be exempted from vehicle purchase tax (the tax reduction for each vehicle does not exceed 30,000 RMB), and those purchased between 2026 and 2027 will be subject to half the tax (the tax reduction for each vehicle does not exceed 15,000 RMB). On August 27, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Special Action Plan for the Large-scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025-2027)", which clearly aims to achieve an installed capacity of new energy storage of more than 180 million kilowatts nationwide by 2027, and to promote the large-scale and market-oriented development of new energy storage. The policy support is increasing, and the energy storage industry is undoubtedly expected to become a core highlight of sustainable growth in the lithium battery field.
Despite the strong demand and supply in the lithium battery industry, and the uncertainty in the supply side, the tension in the lithium carbonate industry chain is expected to ease in the fourth quarter, and the market fluctuation is expected to narrow.
As an integrated internet platform providing benchmark prices; On October 22nd, the benchmark price of lithium carbonate (industrial grade) on SunSirs was 73,166.67 RMB per ton, an increase of 2.45% compared with the beginning of this month (71,416.67 RMB per ton).
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