SunSirs: China Soybean Meal Market Oscillates and Falls

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, starting from October 13th, the bearish trend dominated and the soybean meal market fluctuated and fell. On October 13th, the average market price of soybean meal was 3,032 RMB/ton, and on October 21st, the average market price of soybean meal was 2,978 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.78% in price.

Supply side: From January to September 2025, China imported a total of 86.18 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%. Among them, China's soybean imports in September were 12.869 million tons, an increase of 4.8% compared to the previous month, continuing to reach a new high. Starting from the National Day holiday, the import quantity of raw soybeans remains high, and the supply pressure has doubled, leading to a decline in the soybean meal market.

Inventory: Since April, due to the impact of tariff policies, the number of imported soybeans arriving at ports has been continuously decreasing, and soybean meal inventory has hit a new record, falling to single digits. In early May, the number of imported soybeans arriving at the port recovered, and soybean meal inventories gradually rebounded. In June, it continued to increase, and soybean meal inventory remained high in July, exceeding 1 million tons in August. In September, soybean meal inventory remained above 1.1 million tons, with a peak of over 1.2 million tons in mid month. After the National Day holiday, inventory levels declined and returned to below 1 million tons. The inventory pressure has decreased, and the soybean meal market is expected to rise.

Futures: During the National Day holiday, the price of US soybeans fluctuated and rose in foreign markets. China has not yet opened up its procurement of US soybeans, and the overall increase is limited. After the holiday, domestic soybean meal opened higher, with an opening price of 2,950 RMB/ton, up 22 RMB/ton from September 30th. The bullish factors have been digested, and after the continuous rise in the soybean meal market, the main oscillation is downward. As of October 21st, the yield of soybean meal was 2,889 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.7% from October 9th. The futures market is suppressing, and the spot market for soybean meal is weakly rising.

Demand: After the National Day holiday, the temperature has dropped, and the operating rate of the terminal breeding industry has gradually increased. The rigid demand for soybean meal has improved, and the market procurement of soybean meal is still acceptable. The trading volume of soybean meal market has rebounded. Terminal demand provides certain support for the soybean meal market, and the decline in soybean meal market is limited.

The soybean meal analyst from SunSirs believes that by the end of October, the high amount of imported soybeans is not enough. The operating rate of soybean oil plants has increased, supported by terminal demand, and there is a long short game. The soybean meal market may stop falling and stabilize in the future.

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