SunSirs: Merchants' Shipments Are Concentrated, China PC Market Price Growth Blocked

According to the bulk ranking data from SunSirs, the domestic PC market in China experienced a stagflation and correction in October. The spot prices of some brands have fallen. As of October 16th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 14,483.33 RMB/ton, with a price increase or decrease of +0.12% compared to early October.

On the supply side: In the first half of October, domestic PC aggregation enterprises had a large and stable load with small fluctuations. As of the time of writing, the industry's operating rate is about 81%, with an average weekly output of around 68,000 tons, with limited changes compared to the beginning of the month. However, maintenance arrangements have been centralized and released on the front lines of Pingmei Shenma, Lihua Yiweiyuan, Jiaxing Teiren, and Luxi Huoao in the future. In terms of inventory, there is a high-level stalemate, and the pattern of abundant PC supply remains unchanged. The positive news of early maintenance has basically been exhausted, and the market is waiting for the implementation of maintenance arrangements for many aggregation plants. Overall, the weak reality and strong expectations on the PC supply side provide moderate support for PC.

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the bisphenol A market significantly declined in the first half of October. Upstream phenol and acetone both suffered heavy setbacks, which has a significant impact on the bisphenol A market. In addition, the continuous weakness of bisphenol A consumption has led to a rapid decline in spot prices due to multiple factors. The current market atmosphere remains bleak, with many businesses offering discounts and taking orders, making it difficult for the market to have a chance to stop falling. It is expected that bisphenol A will continue to seek a balance point downwards in the future, while its support effect on the cost of PC will weaken.

On the demand side: October is still in the traditional peak season for PC, but the downstream factory load of the "Golden Ten" this year is not ideal, and the inventory remains at a weak level of rigid demand. Pre holiday warehouse building is not obvious, and post holiday inventory digestion is slow. Although there were maintenance signals that stimulated the early rise of spot prices, as the positive news gradually dissipated, market trading activity declined. Merchants tend to focus on selling goods to recoup funds, leading to a concentration of profit taking and price stagnation and decline. In addition, the industry's market momentum has been weak for a long time, social inventory is high, and on-site sources of goods are abundant. Although there are collective price increases from aggregation factories, terminal enterprises are resistant to high priced sources of goods. After the demand for filling vacancies in the first half of the month was met, the speed of market supply circulation slowed down again. Overall, the demand side provides average support for PC spot prices.

In October, the domestic PC market in China experienced stagflation and fell back. The upstream bisphenol A market is still in a downward trend, and the cost value of PC support has collapsed. Domestic PC aggregation plants have large and stable loads with small fluctuations, and maintenance in the future is relatively concentrated. The spot price of PC has risen to a high level in the early stage, and the current market trading situation is not good. It is expected that the PC market will be hindered from rising in the short term and enter a consolidation market.

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