SunSirs: Brazil's Total Corn Production in 2025/2026 Is Projected to Reach 138.6 Million Tons

The Brazilian National Supply Corporation (CONAB) released its first 2025/2026 survey report on Tuesday, projecting Brazil's total corn production in 2025/2026 to reach 138.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from 141.1 million tons in 2024/2025.

Corn planted area is expected to increase by 3.9% to 22.69 million hectares, but the average yield is expected to fall to 6,109 kg/hectare, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4 percentage points.

CONAB stated that Brazil's planted area for both first- and second-season corn is expected to increase in 2025/2026. The first-season corn area is expected to increase by 6.1% year-on-year, reversing the downward trend of recent years. This is primarily due to the following factors: corn prices will be more attractive in the first half of 2026, benefiting from seasonal factors and the potential for increased corn demand in Brazil.

For the second-season corn crop, planted area is projected to increase by 3.8% as farmers continue to rotate soybeans with corn. However, yields are projected to decline by 6.1% year-over-year, bringing the second-season corn production forecast to 110 million tons, a 2.5% year-over-year decrease.

Corn exports are expected to increase significantly.

CONAB projects a significant increase in corn exports in the 2025/2026 marketing year, from 40 million tons in the previous year to 46.5 million tons.

Domestic consumption is also expected to increase from 90.5 million tons in the previous year to 94.5 million tons, primarily due to increased demand for corn in the ethanol industry.

Corn ending stocks are expected to fall to 13.36 million tons, down from 14.12 million tons in the previous year.

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