SunSirs: Rubber and Plastics Industries Bulk Commodity Intelligence (October 15, 2025)

Macroeconomics

1. [PPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national producer price index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month and remained unchanged month-on-month. The producer purchase price index (PPI) fell by 3.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month and a month-on-month increase of 0.1%. On average from January to September, the PPI fell by 2.8% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 3.2%.

2. [CPI] National Bureau of Statistics: In September 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) fell by 0.3% year-on-year and rose by 0.1% month-on-month. On average from January to September, the CPI fell by 0.1% year-on-year.

3. [Automobiles] The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) released data showing that in September, automobile production and sales reached 3.276 million and 3.226 million units, respectively, representing month-on-month increases of 16.4% and 12.9%, and year-on-year increases of 17.1% and 14.9%, respectively. For the first time in history, automobile production and sales exceeded 3 million units during the same period, with monthly year-on-year growth rates remaining above 10% for five consecutive months.

In September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 23.7% and 24.6%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new vehicle sales. From January to September, new energy vehicle production and sales reached 11.243 million and 11.228 million units, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 35.2% and 34.9%, respectively. New energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of total new vehicle sales.

4. [Federal Reserve] Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the coming months, acknowledging "some signs" of tightening in money markets. Powell said the outlook for inflation and employment appears to have changed little since the September FOMC monetary policy meeting, but he emphasized growing signs of slack in the labor market. Powell hinted that even though the government shutdown has severely weakened the Fed's grasp of the economic situation, it is still expected to cut interest rates by another 25 basis points later this month.

5. [Federal Reserve] Fed Governor Bowman said he continues to expect two more rate cuts before the end of the year.

6. [European Central Bank] ECB President Christine Lagarde: We will never say the ECB is done cutting interest rates. Lagarde recently stated that we cannot declare the rate-cutting cycle over yet and are prepared for any eventuality, as even in the current favorable situation, the situation could still change.

7. [IMF Economic Forecast] The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that global overall inflation will fall from 5.8% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2025, and further to 3.7% in 2026. Global economic growth is expected to be 3.2% this year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the July forecast, and 3.1% in 2026, the same as the previous forecast.

Rubber and Plastics

1. [PC] Jiaxing Teijin's PC production facilities have a total capacity of 150,000 tons/year. Due to scheduled maintenance, the planned load has been reduced.

2. [PE] On October 14th, Jilin Petrochemical reported on its PE facilities: a 300,000-ton low-pressure unit is producing GC100S. A 280,000-ton linear unit will be shut down on the 10th for approximately one week. A new 400,000-ton low-pressure unit is producing 5740F.

3. [PP] Guangzhou Petrochemical has three PP production facilities with a total capacity of 400,000 tons/year. Line 3 was shut down for maintenance on October 14th, while Line 1 is expected to enter maintenance on October 15th. Lines 1 and 3 are scheduled to restart in early December. Line 2 is operating normally.

4. [BR] On October 14th, the butadiene rubber market in East China weakened, with dealers' quotations slightly lowering by approximately 50 RMB/ton. Currently, Qilu Butadiene is priced around 11,500 RMB/ton for on-demand pickup.

5. [SBR] The styrene butadiene rubber market in East China saw a slight decline on October 14th, with some vendors' quotes dropping by around 50-100 RMB/ton. Currently, the mainstream price for styrene butadiene 1502 grades from Fushun, Jilin Chemical, Qilu, Weitai, Yibang, and Lanzhou Chemical is 11,500-11,600 RMB/ton.

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