SunSirs: The Domestic Phenol Market Rose First and Then Fell in September

Price trend

The domestic phenol market saw a surge before a decline in September. According to data monitored by SunSirs, the domestic phenol market price in East China was 6,800 RMB/ton on September 1st, and 6,846 RMB/ton on September 29th. All major markets across China experienced similar fluctuations.

Analysis review

In early September, the market experienced a rapid upward trend. Shipments in East China were primarily for domestic trade, leading to significant delays in shipping. Port inventories were significantly insufficient. As of the 15th, Jiangyin Port had only 5,000 tons in inventory, having remained at a low level for the previous week. The phenol market surged in the first half of the month, breaking through 7,000 RMB/ton.

In mid-to-late September, after a rapid rise, the market experienced a rational correction due to the comprehensive acceptance of high prices by terminals and the negative impact of costs. Although the supply was still tight at the time, the high prices were difficult to support. At the same time, the average monthly price in the second half of the month was relatively high, and the market showed a downward trend. Sinopec also adjusted its listing price accordingly.

As of September 29, the phenol quotations in major markets across the country were as follows:

Regarding plants: Shenghong Refining & Chemical, Jiangsu Ruiheng, Longjiang Chemical, and Sinopec Mitsui's phenol-acetone units all shut down for maintenance for varying lengths during the month, impacting the domestic phenol-acetone unit utilization rate to a low of 66%. Shandong Fuyu Chemical planned a 30-day maintenance start date of September 28, while Ningbo Formosa Petrochemical planned a 40-day maintenance start date in mid-October.

Market outlook

SunSirs predicts that prior to the National Day holiday, more attention was paid to downstream stocking. As of September 29, Jiangyin Port was under minimal inventory pressure. With the gradual restart of idled facilities, downstream stocking was also influenced by industry operating rates, with most stocking based on demand before the holiday. This shift may also shift to more demand-based stocking after the holiday. Overall, the phenol market supply will be supported in the short term, but the market pressure will be relatively high in the later period, and the market will mainly be weak.

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