SunSirs: DMF Market Analysis and Forecast: September 19-26, 2025

The Dimethylformamide (DMF) market in China exhibited a stable performance during the week of September 19-26, 2025, with prices showing minimal fluctuations and maintaining a low-center gravity. According to SunSirs' commodity analysis system, the average quoted price for premium-grade DMF stood at 4,010 CNY/ton as of September 26, reflecting a steady trend compared to the previous week. This stability aligns with broader market observations, where spot delivery prices varied regionally but remained within narrow bands. In Shandong and surrounding areas, spot prices were referenced at 3,650-3,800 CNY/ton, while Jiangzhe regions hovered around 3,900 CNY/ton. The East China market, including Jiangsu (3,830-3,920 CNY/ton) and Zhejiang (3,880-3,980 CNY/ton), showed similar steadiness. In South China, particularly Guangzhou, prices ranged from 4,000-4,050 CNY/ton, with a slightly weaker center due to logistical factors. Overall, the market's negotiation focus remained low, influenced by subdued demand and adequate supply.

Several factors contributed to this equilibrium. On the market side, DMF transactions were primarily driven by essential procurement, with downstream industries like textiles, pharmaceuticals, and electronics adopting a cautious inventory approach amid general trading sentiment. Regional supply was sufficient in key production hubs like Shandong and East China, though South China's logistics disruptions introduced minor tightness. Upstream, methanol prices exerted downward pressure, operating weakly with Inner Mongolia's Ordos north line at 2,080-2,100 CNY/ton (a 10 CNY/ton uptick at the low end) and Ningbo imports at 2,260-2,280 CNY/ton.

Globally, methanol's fixed-price discussions ranged from 259-264 USD/ton, reflecting a lackluster negotiation atmosphere that limited cost support for DMF. This upstream weakness, combined with no significant demand surges, capped any upward momentum in DMF prices.

Looking ahead, SunSirs analysts anticipate short-term stability in the DMF market, with prices likely to oscillate around current levels without strong upward drivers. In the near term (early October 2025), the market may consolidate in the 4,000-4,100 CNY/ton range, potentially testing lower bounds if methanol continues its soft trajectory. However, a revival in downstream sectors, such as textile peak seasons, could provide modest support. Mid-term outlook for Q4 2025 suggests prices stabilizing at 1,050-1,150 USD/ton (approximately 7,500-8,200 CNY/ton), bolstered by steady pharmaceutical demand and potential raw material cost recoveries. Environmental regulations and supply chain recoveries from earlier disruptions (e.g., in Xinjiang and Yanzhou) will be key monitors. Globally, Asia-Pacific trends indicate a slightly bearish tilt, with Northeast Asia prices down 3-5% in September, underscoring caution for exporters. Stakeholders should track methanol volatility and downstream order volumes for timely adjustments.

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