SunSirs: Fundamentals Show Phased Improvement,PTA Prices See Modest Rebound

According to SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, China's PTA market experienced a decline followed by a rebound this week (September 22-26). As of September 26, the average PTA price in East China stood at 4,639 RMB/ton, marking a 0.28% increase from the beginning of the week. Early in the week, PTA prices shifted downward due to the restart of some facilities and weakening crude oil prices. Midweek, PTA prices rebounded as oil prices recovered, commodity sentiment improved, and downstream pre-holiday stockpiling demand increased.

Specifically, regarding supply: Fuhai Creation's 4.5 million-ton facility restarted on September 22; Zhuhai BP's No. 1 1.1 million-ton unit reduced output on September 23 and is currently recovering; No. 2 1.25 million-ton unit shut down on September 23; Xinjiang Zhongtai's 1.2 million-ton unit halted on September 19 and remains offline. The industry's overall operating rate currently hovers around 77%.

The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict in the international crude oil market has heightened potential supply risks. Coupled with declining U.S. commercial crude inventories, international oil prices have risen. As of September 25, the November WTI crude oil futures contract settled at $64.98 per barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $68.58 per barrel.

Downstream polyester enterprises have shown renewed purchasing enthusiasm. With the upcoming extended holiday season, polyester and textile mills have some inventory replenishment needs, improving market transaction sentiment and providing short-term demand support. However, this momentum lacks sustainability, as expectations for new orders and capacity recovery remain limited.

SunSirs analysts note that the traditional peak fuel consumption season in the U.S. is nearing its end, while supply-side risks remain unresolved. International oil prices are expected to undergo short-term volatility and adjustments. With the restart of domestic and international PX maintenance units, PX supply is gradually increasing to elevated levels, putting pressure on PTA costs. Although demand shows temporary improvement, the sustainability of the uptick in terminal order intake requires further observation. Concurrently, expectations of increased PTA supply suggest that, overall, PTA will exhibit a volatile yet weakening trend.

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