SunSirs: Polyester Staple Fiber Prices Poised to Stabilize and Rebound

According to SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, domestic polyester staple fiber prices in China declined initially before rebounding this week (September 22-26). As of September 26, the market average price for polyester staple fiber (1.4D*38mm) stood at 6,441 RMB/ton, down 0.01% from the start of the week.

Persistent Russia-Ukraine conflict in the international crude oil market triggered potential supply risks. Coupled with declining U.S. commercial crude inventories, international oil prices rose. As of September 25, the settlement price for the November WTI crude oil futures contract stood at $64.98/barrel, while the December Brent crude oil futures contract settled at $68.58/barrel.

As of September 26, the average market price of PTA in East China stood at 4,639 RMB/ton, up 0.28% from the beginning of the week. At the start of the week, PTA prices shifted downward due to the restart of some facilities and weakening crude oil prices. Midweek, PTA prices rebounded as oil prices recovered, commodity sentiment improved, and downstream pre-holiday stockpiling demand increased.

Downstream yarn mills showed renewed purchasing enthusiasm. With the upcoming extended holiday season, factories had some inventory replenishment needs, improving market transaction sentiment. New orders slightly improved, and finished goods inventory declined. Traditional peak season orders showed some improvement, providing short-term demand support. However, inventory drawdown remains slow, and its sustainability warrants observation. Expectations for new orders and capacity utilization recovery remain limited.

SunSirs analysts note that the traditional peak fuel consumption season in the U.S. is nearing its end, and supply-side risks remain unresolved. International oil prices are expected to undergo short-term volatility and adjustments. Furthermore, anticipated increases in PX and PTA supply are expected to weaken cost-side support. While demand shows temporary improvement, the sustainability of this uptick in terminal order intake requires further monitoring.

Overall, polyester staple fiber prices are projected to maintain a fluctuating pattern.

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