SunSirs: Aluminum Prices Fluctuated and Rose in September

Price trend

Aluminum prices fluctuated and rose in September. According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, as of September 16, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in East China was 20,960 RMB/ton, up 1.57% from the average price of 20,636.67 RMB/ton on September 1.

Analysis review

Recent positive factors

Macroeconomic policies and expectations were positive

The US PPI fell in August for the first time in four months. While there were some year-on-year and month-on-month changes in the August CPI, overall expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut remained strong. As of September 12, data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch platform indicated a 92.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This heightened expectation of a rate cut was supporting aluminum prices. Furthermore, data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month in August, and by 6.2% year-on-year from January to August. Industrial growth was supporting aluminum demand.

Downstream demand picked up:

With the arrival of the "Golden September" consumption peak season, the overall operating rate of leading domestic downstream aluminum processing companies increased by 0.4 percentage points month-on-month to 62.1%, with the "Golden September" effect continuing to intensify. Specifically, the operating rate of the aluminum cable industry saw a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points to 65.2%. The lifting of regional environmental protection inspections and grid orders supported the increase in production at leading companies. The operating rate of aluminum profiles rebounded by 1 percentage point to 54%, with the trend of architectural profiles shifting towards industrial materials accelerating. PV frame processing fees have bottomed out and stabilized, with new orders for automotive profiles becoming a bright spot. The operating rate of leading aluminum sheet and strip companies remained stable at a high of 68.6%, with the can stocking cycle nearing its end, highlighting the resilience of demand in the automotive and 3C sectors. The operating rate of the aluminum foil industry remained at a peak level of 71.9%, with stable demand for packaging foil and battery foil.

Recent negative factors

Changes in Public Inventory:

On September 15, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories in major consumer regions reached 629,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from September 11.

Market outlook

Raw material side: Alumina operating capacity is at a high level, and inventory continues to accumulate, so the cost has limited support from aluminum prices;

Downstream demand: As the domestic peak season gradually approaches, the spot demand for aluminum ingots has improved, and the operating rate of primary processing enterprises has increased month-on-month, which has provided some support to aluminum prices;

Market sentiment: With the Fed’s interest rate cut expected, commodity market sentiment is relatively strong;

In summary, in the short term, aluminum prices will mainly fluctuate and tend to be stronger.

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