SunSirs: Week Analysis of Main Products of Fertilizer Industry Chain (2025.9.8-9.12)

Synthetic Ammonia: This week, the domestic synthetic ammonia market has been in a state of stalemate, with a general weakness in prices, and adjustments have been made on a sporadic basis according to the shipment situation. Supported by the post延 recovery time of the inspection and fault of the ammonia enterprise last week and the end of the important activities in the north, the trading atmosphere of the synthetic ammonia market improved briefly at the beginning of the week, especially in the north, but with the further adjustment of prices and the gradual recovery of supply, the downstream market once again refused to accept the high price, and the high price gradually stabilized, with low prices sporadically following. In the middle and late stages, the downstream market did not improve significantly, and combined with the further recovery of the previous inspection equipment, the market began to increase the bearish atmosphere, the low price in Shaanxi was not smooth, which led to the frequent emergence of low prices, and then affected the surrounding areas, and some low prices have dropped to 1720 RMB/ton. In addition, there is an expectation that the new production capacity in Jiangxi will be put into operation, and the pressure of the surrounding market's shipment will further increase, and more attention should be paid to the implementation of the market supply adjustment.

Urea: Domestic urea market continued to decline throughout the week, with a slight rebound in Shandong low-end on Monday, but the overall impact was limited. The adjustment range within the week varied from 10 to 80 RMB/ton, and as of Thursday of this week, the mainstream areas of the small and medium-sized particles referred to 1540-1660 RMB/ton, and the low prices in Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Hubei and other regions have fallen to around 1600 RMB/ton, setting a new price low in nearly half a year.

Domestic urea production increased slightly week-on-week, from 182,000 to 187,000 tons per day, with little change in supply. As of Thursday of this week, domestic urea company inventories have increased to around 1.2 million tons, and the inventory pressure continues to rise. The demand release after the parade was not realized as expected, and the current sales of compound fertilizer products are still not smooth, and the industry's production is still at a relatively low level. In addition, the confirmed quantity of the Indian standard was reduced from 2.522.6 million tons to 2.031.6 million tons, which is still not up to expectations. Coupled with the weak trend of urea futures, the market atmosphere is gloomy, with only essential low-price transactions, and no one is interested in high prices.

Monocalcium Phosphate: This week, the domestic monocalcium phosphate market has been consolidating in a weak pattern. The raw material sulfur price has been continuously exploring upward, and phosphate rock has been firm at a high level, which continues to support the cost side; however, the downstream compound fertilizer production rate is not high, and most factories have already prepared 70% of their raw materials, so the subsequent purchase volume is limited, and demand is not following up. Monocalcium phosphate enterprises continue to execute outstanding orders as the main focus, and new orders are sluggish, and some inventory and sales pressure are gradually rising, and the overall market trading sentiment is weak, with local transactions narrowing and shifting downward, and operators are mostly holding a cautious attitude. It is reported that at present, the mainstream ex-factory price of 55% powder in Hubei area is about 3350-3380 RMB/ton, and the mainstream delivered quotation in Shandong area is about 3450-3540 RMB/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiated. In the short term, we will observe the trend of raw materials and demand, and it is expected that the domestic monocalcium phosphate market will continue to consolidate in a weak pattern.

Diammonium Phosphate: This week, the domestic diammonium phosphate market has been stable and adjusted. The raw material sulfur price continues to rise, phosphorite is still high, and the cost price maintains a high level, which supports a strong market; downstream compound fertilizer enterprises currently mostly maintain the purchase according to the demand, and the purchasing enthusiasm is general. Enterprises continue to execute domestic and foreign orders as the main task, and the ex-factory price has no obvious change for the time being. As the time for using fertilizer approaches, the market trading atmosphere has recovered somewhat compared to the previous period. In terms of supply, the supply of high-grade sources in the market is tight, and the supply of low-grade sources is sufficient. It is reported that at present, the mainstream ex-factory quotation of 64% diammonium phosphate in Hubei area is about 3800-3850 RMB/ton, and the mainstream ex-warehouse price of 64% diammonium phosphate in Shandong area is about 4000-4100 RMB/ton, and the actual transaction is mainly negotiation. In the short term, we will observe the demand and the trend of raw materials, and it is expected that the domestic diammonium phosphate market will maintain a stable operation.

Potassium Chloride: The market trend of potassium chloride this week generally shows a downward trend, with a significant phenomenon of having prices but no transactions. In terms of domestic potassium, the market reference price for 60% crystal potassium is between 3100-3230 RMB/ton, and the high-end quotation has become more flexible. In terms of imported potassium, the market transaction situation is not good, and the traders' willingness to ship goods is strong. Affected by the decline of potassium prices in Laos first, coupled with the enhanced expectation of the market for the increase in the amount of goods arriving later, the prices of other types of potassium chloride have also gradually declined. At present, the mainstream quotation of 62% white potassium is between 3150-3480 RMB/ton, some of the high-end quotations have dropped to 3460 RMB/ton; the mainstream quotation of 60% Laotian potassium is between 3050-3180 RMB/ton, and there is a certain room for negotiation for actual transactions. In terms of border trade, the mainstream price of 62% white potassium is between 3100-3200 RMB/ton, the local market demand is released slowly, and the market is mostly weak and stable. The downstream market continues to operate at a low level, and the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is not high, and the overall transaction is significantly limited, and the market is pessimistic.

Potassium Sulfate: This week, the domestic market price of potassium sulfate has a narrowing range of fluctuations, with a relatively flat market trading atmosphere, mainly focusing on observation. In terms of raw materials, the market price of potassium chloride has shown a narrow downward trend, which has alleviated the cost pressure of potassium sulfate production enterprises to a certain extent. However, due to the long-term inverted state of the potassium sulfate market, the decline of potassium chloride prices has helped to narrow the loss, but it has not fundamentally reversed the operating difficulties of the manufacturers. The downstream compound fertilizer enterprises are affected by the slow start of terminal demand, and their purchasing enthusiasm continues to be low. In terms of process, the operating rate of the Mannheim potassium sulfate device maintains a low level, most enterprises focus on digesting the previous inventory, and new orders are insufficient. The ex-factory price of 50% powder potassium sulfate is 3850-3900 RMB/ton, and the ex-factory price of 52% powder is referred to as 3950-4100 RMB/ton, with a certain room for negotiation in actual transactions. In terms of resource-based potassium sulfate, the device operating rate in the main production area is low, and the manufacturer's quotation system remains stable, among which the ex-factory price of 50% powder potassium sulfate in Qinghai water and salt system is in the range of 3500-3600 RMB/ton, supported by the supply side, and it is expected that the price fluctuation range in the short term will be limited.

Compound Fertilizer: This week, the domestic compound fertilizer market has been orderly advancing, with some small and medium-sized enterprises maintaining prices at a previous low. Price references: 45%S(14:16:15/3*15) 2850-2950 RMB/ton, 45%CL(3*15) 2400-2500 RMB/ton. Raw material aspect: The price of urea continues to decline, the price of phosphatic fertilizers is weakly adjusted, the price of potash fertilizers is sporadically adjusted, and the cost support for compound fertilizers is insufficient. Supply and demand aspect: Downstream demand is average, terminal essential restocking, and the progress of inventory consumption by dealers is slow; as the autumn fertilizer peak season approaches, some large-scale enterprises are increasing the load of their equipment, and the average production and inventory levels have increased. Price aspect: The price of high-nitrogen fertilizers with 45% content is between 2380-2550 RMB/ton, and the price of high-phosphorus fertilizers with 42% content is around 2500-2600 RMB/ton. The main operators issued orders in advance, and the North China region is about to enter the final stage, with the terminal arrival progress completed about 7-8%. Overall, this week's compound fertilizer market is mainly orderly, with little change in the market. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the price trend of raw materials and the arrival progress of downstream customers.

Sulphur: The domestic sulphur market has once again experienced volatility this week, with Indonesia's internal turmoil affecting its sulphur procurement. This has supported the international sulphur market, which continues to climb, and the port-based holders of goods continue to push up prices. The main trading area, the Yangtze River and coastal areas, saw the import of bulk granular sulphur rise to over 2620 RMB/ton at the beginning of this week. At the same time, most domestic sulphur production enterprises increased their offers on Tuesday, with the market bottom price source hard to find, continuing to push up the overall upward trend of the sulphur market. However, the new batch of 0.63 million tons of sulphur sold by Dalian Hengli Petrochemical on September 9th had a transaction price of 2460 RMB/ton and 2485 RMB/ton, down 3 RMB/ton from the offer price on September 4th. Moreover, the selling price of the main domestic sulphur production enterprise, Wanzhou Port of the Pu Guang Gas Field, has remained stable at 2570 RMB/ton, far below market expectations. In response to this, cautious traders are entering the market, and the number of new transactions has shrunk. Entering the second half of this week, the domestic sulphur market is likely to remain at a high level. Considering the national policy orientation of overall supply and price stability for the fertiliser industry, the downstream main phosphatic fertiliser industry is likely to remain stable. The loss situation of the fertiliser enterprises continues due to the high price of raw materials. In addition, the sulfuric acid market, which has been strong recently, has shown a decline in some areas, and the demand side has little support for the sulphur market. In response to this, cautious traders are still cautious about chasing the current high price of sulphur, and there is no stimulation for the sulphur market from the capital market. With many profit-taking positions in the market at present, as the number of new transactions shrinks, the expectation of small traders to take profits is not decreasing, and it is highly likely that the sulphur market will decline. Data from Jlikun shows that as of September 11th, the China Sulphur Price Index 2549, up 39 points from September 4th.

Sulfuric acid: The domestic sulfuric acid market atmosphere has been weak this week, with local declines. The market for downstream diammonium phosphate (DAP) and industrial-grade diammonium phosphate (IGP) in Hubei has been soft, leading to a significant decrease in the enthusiasm of downstream users to purchase sulfuric acid. The main manufacturers are under pressure to sell, and the acid price has been adjusted downward. The main manufacturers in Jiangxi have followed the price cuts, and the current mainstream ex-factory price of 98% refined sulfuric acid in Hubei is around 650-730 RMB/ton. The downstream fertilizer industry in Anhui has shown less enthusiasm for purchasing, coupled with the price cuts of surrounding areas such as Hubei, the main manufacturers are facing increasing sales pressure, and the acid price has been adjusted downward. Driven by this, the main manufacturers in Zhejiang have adjusted the acid price for some regions, and the current mainstream ex-factory price of 98% refined sulfuric acid in Anhui is around 630-660 RMB/ton. The market supply in Yunnan is relatively sufficient, but some calcium carbide enterprises in the downstream have seen a decline in production, and the demand has not followed up, leading to a build-up of manufacturer's inventory. In order to alleviate the pressure of sales, the main manufacturers have adjusted the acid price downward, and the acid price of the manufacturers in the area has followed the price cuts, and the current mainstream ex-factory price of 98% refined sulfuric acid in Yunnan is around 720-760 RMB/ton. In the JiRMB area of Henan, some manufacturers are carrying out maintenance, but the downstream demand is weak, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has weakened, leading to an increase in manufacturer's inventory and pressure on sales, and the acid price has been adjusted downward. The current mainstream ex-factory price of 98% refined sulfuric acid in Henan is around 480-580 RMB/ton. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm in Hunan is weak, and coupled with the price cuts of surrounding areas such as Hubei and Jiangxi, and the recovery of production of the manufacturer's previous maintenance equipment, the supply has increased, and the manufacturer's acid price has been adjusted downward. The current mainstream ex-factory price of 98% refined sulfuric acid in Hunan is around 570-660 RMB/ton.

If you have any inquiries or purchasing needs, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.