SunSirs: Ferrosilicon Spot Prices Rose Slightly Last Week (September 8-12)

Price trend

Despite some news reports disrupting the market, ferrosilicon futures have recently remained range-bound, with minimal price adjustments. Spot prices have also fluctuated within a narrow range, with no significant price adjustments, and a generally wait-and-see attitude prevailing. According to the SunSirs Commodity Market Analysis System, on September 12th, ferrosilicon (grade: FeSi75-B; particle size/mm: natural block) was quoted in the Ningxia region at 5,250-5,350 RMB/ton, with an average price of 5,245 RMB/ton, up 0.60% from Monday.

Influencing factors

Raw material semi-coke market:

Last week, the national semi-coke market was stable and slightly strong, with cost support strengthening and firm corporate quotations. As of September 12, the price of medium-sized materials in Shenmu market was 630-710 RMB/ton, the price of small materials was 630-690 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of coke flour was 470-520 RMB/ton; the price of medium-sized materials in Fugu market was 640-680 RMB/ton, the price of small materials was 630-760 RMB/ton, and the mainstream price of coke flour was 460-580 RMB/ton; the mainstream price of coke flour in Zhongwei market was 530 RMB/ton; the price of mixed materials in Shizuishan market was 520 RMB/ton; the price of medium-sized and small materials in Ordos market was 645-670 RMB/ton, and the price of coke flour was 560 RMB/ton; the price of medium-sized and small materials in Hohhot market was 650-660 RMB/ton, and the price of coke flour was 580 RMB/ton; The price of small and medium-sized materials in Hami market was 580-700 RMB/ton, coke flour was 240 RMB/ton, and mixed materials were 195-280 RMB/ton; the price of small and medium-sized materials in Changji market was 600-700 RMB/ton, coke flour was 300 RMB/ton, and the above were all ex-factory prices in cash including tax; the price of small and medium-sized materials in Tianjin Port was 920-980 RMB/ton, and coke flour was 720-880 RMB/ton, and the above were all port closing prices in cash including tax; the price of small materials in Yumen market was 255-460 RMB/ton, coke flour price was 320-550 RMB/ton, carbon powder price was 440-450 RMB/ton, and rice material price was 350-380 RMB/ton, all were ex-factory prices in cash including tax.

Operating Status

As of September 12, there had been slight fluctuations in the operating rates of ferrosilicon manufacturers, with an increase in plants shut down for maintenance. As of September 11th, the national operating rate (capacity utilization) was 34.84%, a decrease of 1.50% from the previous week. Average daily output was 16,150 tons, a decrease of 1.70%, or 280 tons, from the previous week.

Downstream Situation

HBIS' September 75B ferrosilicon tender price was 5,800 RMB/ton, down 230 RMB/ton from the previous round. The asking price was 5,700 RMB/ton, compared to 6,030 RMB/ton in August. The September tender volume for HBIS' 75B ferrosilicon was 3,151 tons, compared to 2,835 tons in the previous round, an increase of 316 tons. The tender price saw a slight increase, partially influenced by futures market fluctuations, but the overall increase was modest. Small and medium-sized steel mills will subsequently adopt this pricing model.

Market outlook

As for the situation as of Septembr 12, the overall situation was still mixed with bullish and bearish information, with buyers and sellers playing a game: on the positive side, with semi-coke prices running steadily and electricity price increases reported in some regions, the cost-side support remainsed relatively solid, and with the industry's traditional peak demand season and steel recruitment being superimposed, some industry insiders were also optimistic. In addition, with the National Day approaching, some buyers may stock up in advance, accelerating the pace of market transactions; on the negative side, although we have entered the industry's traditional peak demand season, the peak season trend was not obvious, market demand had not been fully released, and overall transaction follow-up was relatively slow. In addition, most buyers were psychologically low in purchasing prices and had a certain price-cutting sentiment, which had suppressed the market (recently issued bidding prices have shown varying degrees of decline compared to last month). Under such circumstances, it is expected that the spot price of ferrosilicon will not fluctuate much in the short term and will be around 50 RMB/ton.

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