SunSirs: Weakening Demand Puts Overall Pressure on the Price of China Thermal Coal Market

Recently, the thermal coal market has shown a fluctuating and weak trend, putting overall pressure on prices. As of early September 2025, the price performance of major ports has shown differentiation:

Port prices

Qinhuangdao Port: The closing price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal is about 690 RMB/ton, 5,000 kcal is about 608 RMB/ton, and 4,500 kcal is about 532 RMB/ton. Guangzhou Port: The closing price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal is about 760 RMB/ton, 5,000 kcal is about 655 RMB/ton, and 4,500 kcal is about 595 RMB/ton.

Origin price

Shanxi: In Datong area, the price of 5,500 kcal thermal coal at the pithead is about 495 RMB/ton, and 5,000 kcal is about 476 RMB/ton. Inner Mongolia: The price of 5,500 kcal of thermal coal at the mouth of the Ordos area is about 485 RMB/ton, and 5,000 kcal is about 430 RMB/ton

The market supply and demand pattern presents the characteristics of "stable supply and weak demand". With the end of the summer electricity peak, the daily consumption of power plants gradually decreases, and end users mainly rely on long-term coal transportation, resulting in a low market willingness to purchase coal. Although the production of coal mines in the production area remains stable on the supply side, the inverted shipping costs have affected the enthusiasm of traders for shipping, resulting in a continuous decline in inventory in northern ports and a tight supply of coal resources in the market. In addition, the price advantage of imported coal still exists, but the social unrest in the main source countries of imports has increased supply uncertainty.

Looking ahead to the future, it is expected that the price of thermal coal will remain weak in early September, but the downward space is limited. As the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, industrial electricity demand is expected to rebound. In addition, with the start of stocking demand during the National Day holiday, coal prices may gradually stop falling and stabilize in mid to late September. It is necessary to pay close attention to changes in port inventory, adjustments in imported coal policies, and the recovery of demand in non electricity industries, which will have a significant impact on the subsequent trend of coal prices.

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