SunSirs: In August, the Polyester Filament Market Turned from Decline to Growth

Price trend

The commodity market analysis system of SunSirs shows that the overall price of polyester filament showed an upward trend in August. The market was affected by factors such as cost, supply and demand. As of August 29, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6,800-6,950 RMB/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8,000-8,150 RMB/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7,000-7,200 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The price rose in early August: Polyester filament prices rose in early August. On August 12, some polyester factories raised the prices of FDY and other specifications by 50-100 RMB/ton. Over the weekend, FDY production and sales rebounded significantly, and the local POY production and sales rate reached 700%.

Prices fell in mid-August. As of August 15, mainstream polyester filament mills in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were quoting 6,600-6,900 RMB/ton for POY (150D/48F), 7,800-8,050 RMB/ton for polyester DTY (150D/48F low-stretch), and 7,000-7,200 RMB/ton for polyester FDY (150D/96F). By August 23, POY prices were 7,400-7,600 RMB/ton, DTY prices were 9,000-9,200 RMB/ton, and FDY prices were 8,000-8,200 RMB/ton.

Prices rebounded in late August: Prices rose again in late August. On August 26, major polyester filament manufacturers raised their quotations one after another. Among them, DTY generally increased by 50 RMB/ton, some specifications increased by 100 RMB/ton, and some factories directly quoted an increase of 200 RMB/ton.

Cost: Polyester raw materials weakened at the beginning of the month, impacted by demand and weaker-than-expected US economic data. PX prices hit a new low since listing, and PTA fell below its long-term support level of 5,500 RMB/ton. Insufficient cost support led to a decline in polyester filament prices. On August 15th, rising international crude oil futures drove up PX prices, which in turn fed through to PTA, boosting polyester filament prices. Later in the month, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and the Russia-Ukraine conflict led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. This, in turn, increased polyester raw material costs, driving up polyester filament prices.

Supply side: Polyester factories maintained a high operating rate of over 90%, but leading companies regulated the market through centralized production cuts. Coupled with the limited new production capacity in August, the supply pressure was temporarily alleviated, which had a certain supporting effect on prices.

On the demand side: End-user textile orders had yet to materially recover, and weaving companies were holding high inventories of grey fabric. Mid-to-late August marks the end of the traditional off-season, with purchases primarily driven by essential needs. However, with the approaching "Golden September and Silver October," downstream manufacturers were experiencing a certain level of stockpiling. Starting in late August, domestic and foreign trade orders increased, and downstream weaving mill operating rates gradually rebounded to around 60%, driving up polyester filament prices. To restore profit margins, manufacturers had continuously raised prices, creating expectations of higher prices and forcing downstream manufacturers to passively purchase goods. Downstream and end-user customers were cautious about the market outlook, adopting a wait-and-see approach. However, they were also buying on dips during price increases, contributing to market volatility.

Market outlook

SunSirs believes that cost support is expected to remain strong, coupled with the traditional peak season demand expectations1 and companies' willingness to maintain prices, these factors may continue to push prices upward. It is expected that polyester filament prices will likely remain  volatile to be stronger in the short term.

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